2026年菜系期货行情展望：事件驱动，踏“浪”而行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish allocation for rapeseed products in 2026 [4][72] Core Viewpoints - The global rapeseed supply is expected to turn loose in the 2025/26 season, with a significant year-on-year increase in production. However, the initial inventory of major exporting countries is low, and the supply pressure may be postponed. [4][18][19] - The import demand for global rapeseed products is not optimistic due to factors such as the significant recovery of EU rapeseed production, uncertain China-Canada economic and trade relations, and uncertain US biodiesel policies, which will increase the export pressure on major exporting countries, especially Canada. [4][72] - In 2026, the supply of rapeseed products in China is uncertain due to policy influence. Attention should be paid to key time nodes and market drivers after major events. There is a risk of an increase in imports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in the future. [4][72] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Futures Trend Review Rapeseed Meal - In the first stage (January - end of March 2025), it followed soybean meal and was stronger than soybean meal. The anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed meal and the expected supply shortage in March pushed up the price, but the impact was short-lived. [9] - In the second stage (early April - end of August 2025), it followed soybean meal in a volatile and slightly upward trend. Concerns about trade policies and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans affected the price. The anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also had a short-term impact. [10] - In the third stage (early September 2025), it followed soybean meal in a weak and volatile trend. The increase in domestic soybean meal inventory and the recovery of soybean purchases from the US affected the price. [11] Rapeseed Oil - In the first stage (January - early March 2025), it was the weakest among the three major oils due to sufficient supply and no event-driven factors. [14] - In the second stage (mid-March - early June 2025), it was relatively strong due to the expected supply tightening after the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and the increase in ICE rapeseed futures prices. [14] - In the third stage (mid-June - early September 2025), it followed the overall oil sector in an upward trend, driven by the optimistic outlook for global biodiesel consumption and the expected supply shortage of palm oil. [15] - In the fourth stage (since mid-September 2025), it followed the oil sector in a downward trend, but the uncertainty of supply and the strong basis supported its performance. [15] 2. Main Supply and Demand Contradictions Analysis of Rapeseed Products 2.1 Global Rapeseed Supply: Significant Increase in Production, Supply Pressure May Be Postponed - The global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 6.27 million tons year-on-year, with the EU's production increasing by more than 3 million tons. The initial inventory is expected to decrease by 2.12 million tons, and the effective supply will increase by 4.15 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.2%. [18][19] - Canada: The initial inventory in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The new rapeseed export is not ideal at the beginning of the season, and the export is expected to decrease by at least 2.5 million tons year-on-year. The domestic crushing volume is expected to remain high, but the inventory pressure may gradually appear from December to the end of March. [23][25][29] - Australia: The production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.233 million tons, an increase of 837,000 tons year-on-year. The export is expected to increase from 5 - 5.1 million tons to 5.8 - 5.9 million tons. China may account for about 50% of its exports. [32][33] - Russia and Ukraine: The rapeseed production in the Black Sea region reached a record high in the 2025/26 season. Russia's rapeseed production continues to increase, and its rapeseed oil and rapeseed exports may increase. Ukraine's rapeseed production has decreased for two consecutive years, and its rapeseed export has decreased this year. [38][41][43] 2.2 Global Rapeseed Product Demand - The global demand for rapeseed products is not optimistic, mainly due to the uncertainty of trade demand. Attention should be paid to the progress of China-Canada economic and trade negotiations and the final plan and details of the US biodiesel policy. [45] - EU: The rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season has significantly recovered, and the rapeseed import demand is expected to decrease year-on-year. The absolute price and relative cost-effectiveness of rapeseed oil will determine the import demand. The import volume is expected to be 5.7 - 6.1 million tons. [46][48][54] - US: The import demand for rapeseed oil in 2026 may increase slightly. It is related to the US biodiesel policy, and the current policy details are uncertain. [56] - China: The import of rapeseed products in 2026 is uncertain, and the supply may turn loose. The import of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase, and the import of Canadian rapeseed depends on the progress of China-Canada economic and trade negotiations. The import of rapeseed oil is expected to increase steadily, and the import of rapeseed meal may increase significantly. [62] 3. Summary of Main Contradictions and Strategy Outlook - The global rapeseed supply is expected to turn loose in the 2025/26 season, and the supply pressure will gradually appear in 2026. The import demand is not optimistic, which will increase the pressure on major exporting countries. [71][72] - The supply of rapeseed products in China in 2026 is uncertain due to policy influence. Attention should be paid to key time nodes and market drivers. There is a risk of an increase in imports. [72] - It is recommended to pay attention to the bearish allocation opportunities for rapeseed products in 2026. [72]