南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：产地降雨分布不均，部分地区或有偏干旱困扰

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A La Nina phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, but its intensity is weak and currently has limited impact on palm oil-producing regions [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains unevenly distributed, with a decrease in rainfall in each producing area. Rainfall is still concentrated in East Malaysia, most of western Indonesia, and central Kalimantan. Soil moisture in Kalimantan has generally increased. Soil moisture in South Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Riau in Indonesia lags behind the same period in previous years. Rainfall in the Malay Peninsula is overall lower than the average of the past 20 years, and soil moisture is also relatively low. Although rainfall in East Malaysia is also scarce, soil moisture is well-maintained. Attention should be paid to the drought problem in the Malay Peninsula [1] - There is currently insufficient short - term disruptive impact from disastrous weather, but attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect next year's production [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 El Nino and Southern Oscillation Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1. As of the end of November, the El Nino index was - 0.55, indicating the formation of a La Nina phenomenon [1] 3.2 Rainfall and Soil Moisture in Producing Areas 3.2.1 Indonesia - Jambi: Soil moisture at the end of the year has improved compared to the same period [19] - West Kalimantan: Soil moisture has increased, but cumulative precipitation is lower compared to the same period [28] - Central Kalimantan: Soil moisture level is higher compared to the same period [33] - East Kalimantan: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [41] - Riau: Rainfall at the end of the year is limited, and soil moisture is significantly behind the same period in previous years [47] - South Sumatra: Soil moisture lags behind, but is expected to exceed last year's level at the end of the year [52] - North Sumatra: Rainfall at the end of the year is limited, and soil moisture is still relatively low [59] 3.2.2 Malaysia - Johor: Cumulative precipitation is insufficient, and soil moisture is lower than the 20 - year average [65] - Pahang: Rainfall has returned to a lower level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [71] - Perak: Rainfall is scarce, and soil moisture has decreased [77] - Sabah: Although rainfall decreased in December, the soil is relatively moist [85] - Sarawak: Rainfall has decreased, and soil moisture is the same as last year [91]