沪铜周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the domestic macro - meeting also released positive signals of loose monetary policy, leading to a significant rise in copper prices last week. After the sentiment cooled on Monday this week, copper prices corrected. Fundamentally, long - term contracts are still under negotiation, processing fees mostly end in negative values. After the macro - sentiment drives up copper prices, downstream purchasing willingness weakens, and the spot premium weakens. However, before 2026, the pre - demand for new energy vehicles will increase the consumption demand for copper, providing support for copper prices and preventing a sharp decline [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Macro aspect: Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Although the interest - rate cut expectation for 2026 is unclear, the US dollar index declined as expected, supporting the metal market. The domestic macro - meeting also released positive signals of loose monetary policy, boosting copper prices throughout the week. In November 2025, CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year, PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year and rose 0.1% month - on - month [3] - Supply aspect: Last week, as the Shanghai copper price soared, scrap copper enterprises were cautious, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widened. After the 770th document is clarified, the production enthusiasm in relevant regions such as Anhui and Jiangxi may change, potentially increasing scrap copper supply. In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05% month - on - month and 9.75% year - on - year). From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year) [3] - Demand aspect: This week, as copper prices rose, the profit of copper products was squeezed. The production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the capacity utilization rate declined. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure, and most enterprises chose to wait and see, only maintaining the raw material procurement for rigid orders, significantly suppressing market trading activity. The copper foil sector maintained a high - growth level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand for new energy vehicles [3] 2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose. The weekly high was 94,570 yuan/ton, the low was 90,710 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 4.16%, and the range increase was 1.4% [6] 3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of December 12, the average spot premium in East China was 75 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 140 yuan/ton. Last week, the market traded on the Fed's interest - rate cut logic, and the futures price rose continuously. However, due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, the copper spot premium weakened [12] 4. LME Copper Spread Structure - As of December 12, LME copper rose 1.54% during the week, closing at $11,795/ton. Last week, the market traded on the Fed's interest - rate cut logic, and the futures price rose continuously [16] 5. Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data on December 12, the port data of copper concentrate was 664,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. The copper concentrate inventory has reached an inflection point. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the copper ore inventory will fluctuate within a narrow range. The global copper concentrate is in short supply and the ore grade is declining, so the copper ore supply remains tight. In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates; from January to November, China imported 27.614 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [20] 6. Scrap Copper Supply - According to customs statistics, in October 2025, the import volume of scrap copper (copper waste and scrap) was about 196,607 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The largest import source was still Japan. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. Last week, as the Shanghai copper price soared, scrap copper enterprises were cautious, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widened. After the 770th document is clarified, the production enthusiasm in relevant regions such as Anhui and Jiangxi may change, potentially increasing scrap copper supply [27] 7. Smelter Fees - As of December 12, the domestic spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.41 cents/lb. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced that its members will jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. Currently, the long - term processing fee for copper in 2026 is still under negotiation. According to SMM, in the second round of long - term contract negotiations, it is rumored that smelters offered + $11, while Antofagasta offered - $7.5. SMM expects that the negotiation result is likely to fall in the range of 0 to - $5, and the possibility of a result of $0 is high [31] 8. Refined Copper Supply - In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05% month - on - month and 9.75% year - on - year). From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year). According to the latest customs data, in November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, China imported 4.883 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [35] 9. Apparent Demand - As of October 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3218 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.25% [39] 10. Copper Products - This week, as copper prices rose, the profit of copper products was squeezed. The production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the capacity utilization rate declined. Production enterprises generally slowed down the production rhythm due to multiple factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure, and most enterprises chose to wait and see, only maintaining the raw material procurement for rigid orders, significantly suppressing market trading activity. The copper foil sector maintained a high - growth level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand for new energy vehicles [44] 11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. From January to October, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 2,619 hours, 260 hours lower than the same period last year [48] 12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - According to national statistics, from January to November, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; among them, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 7.513 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%; among them, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2% [54] 13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 to 30, 2025, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide reached 1.72 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. As of November this year, the cumulative wholesale sales of new energy vehicles have reached 13.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Starting from January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax will be halved instead of being exempted, so the purchase demand for new energy vehicles may be advanced [60] 14. Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of December 12, the LME copper inventory increased by 3,350 tons to 165,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.2%. The COMEX copper inventory was 436,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.15% and a year - on - year increase of 381.73%. The global copper inventory has increased continuously, but due to the US's "siphoning" of copper, there is still a shortage and imbalance of copper resources in some regions. As of December 11, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 1.095 million tons. The bonded - area inventory continued to increase. Some smelters' exported goods still arrived and were stored in the warehouse, but there were also goods leaving the port and being exported overseas during the week, so the inventory increase was limited. As of December 12, the electrolytic copper futures inventory was 32,600 tons, and the total inventory was 89,400 tons, both showing a week - on - week increasing trend, mainly because after the price rose continuously last week, the downstream's purchasing willingness weakened, and the inventory tended to increase [65][70]