原油周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly. Although crude oil prices rebounded temporarily due to factors such as the US seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and imposing new sanctions on Venezuela, as well as Kazakhstan's lower - than - expected exports, the resumption of the West Qurna 2 oilfield by Lukoil in Iraq, the higher - than - expected increase in US refined oil inventories, and the US's efforts to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have led to crude oil prices hitting a one - month low [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026. Eight additional voluntary - cut producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected, while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations. US crude oil production increased slightly and is near the historical high. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions has declined. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated, and there are concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has continued to decline. The market still worries about crude oil demand. The number of US oil drilling rigs has increased, OPEC+ has continued to increase production, and Middle East exports have risen. The global floating crude oil storage has continued to increase. The 3rd SPM of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which is under maintenance, is expected to resume around the 15th. Iraq has recently resumed the West Qurna 2 oilfield. Saudi Aramco has set the price of "Arab Light Crude Oil" sold to Asia in January next year at a premium of $0.6 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price, the lowest level since January 2021 [3]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply Side - OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 2,848,100 barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,848,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October, reaching 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 5 increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 1,385,300 barrels per day, near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 200,000 barrels month - on - month to 411.9 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has increased for 20 consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Performance of Refined Oil Products in Europe and the US - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $0.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively, and the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $2.5 per barrel and $4.0 per barrel respectively [22]. 3.4 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.417 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.31%, and the year - on - year high margin decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand increased by 1.56% to 8.456 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 8.509 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the weekly diesel demand increased by 21.22% to 4.158 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 3.708 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.42%. The significant month - on - month rebound in diesel demand drove the month - on - month increase of the single - week supply of US crude oil products by 4.42% [27]. 3.5 US Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of December 10, EIA data showed that for the week ending December 5, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 2.31 million barrels, and 3.21% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 6.397 million barrels, more than the expected increase of 2.764 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 2.502 million barrels, more than the expected increase of 1.943 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 200,000 barrels. The decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected, while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations [35]. 3.6 Geopolitical Risks - On the 13th local time, the governor of Odessa Oblast in Ukraine said that Odessa was subjected to a large - scale air strike by Russia, with most areas in Odessa experiencing water and heating outages and some areas having power outages. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine's first wish is to join NATO for real security guarantees, but due to the non - support of the US and some European partners, Ukraine agrees to accept security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO collective defense clause provided by the US and Europe. EU governments have reached an agreement to freeze the assets of the Russian central bank in Europe indefinitely; the Russian central bank has sued Euroclear Bank and warned the EU not to touch the frozen assets [41].