2026年豆一期货年度行情展望：供需收缩，重心上移

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price center of soybean futures is expected to move upward. The supply growth rate is lower than the demand, and China's soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to contract, leading to an upward shift in soybean prices [2][58]. - China's total soybean supply will be stable with a slight decline. In 2025/26, the total supply is stable, while in 2026/27, it is expected to decline slightly due to reduced domestic production, slightly increased imports, and decreased beginning stocks [2][58]. - China's soybean demand is stable. Overall soybean consumption is expected to increase steadily, and domestic soybean consumption is expected to transition from "rapid growth" to a "stable" pattern [2][58]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 DCE Soybean Futures Price Review - From January to November 28, 2025, the main contract price of DCE soybean futures showed a "range - bound" pattern. The bullish factors included domestic policy support, concerns about Sino - US trade friction, and USDA's bullish reports, while the bearish factors were state reserve sales, eased Sino - US trade friction sentiment, and new soybean harvest pressure [7][8][9]. 2. 2026 Soybean Futures Price Main Influencing Factors Analysis 2.1 Supply Side: Sufficient Supply with Slowing Growth - Production: In 2025, China's soybean production reached a new high. The sown area increased slightly, the yield per unit area reached a record high, and the total output increased by about 1.2% year - on - year. In 2026, the production pressure will be relieved, and domestic production can be adjusted by reducing the sown area, maintaining yield growth, and keeping the total output at around 20 million tons [11][19][20]. - Carry - over Stocks: In 2025/26, China's soybean beginning stocks reached a record high, but domestic soybean beginning stocks are expected to decline year - on - year [21]. - Imports: In 2024/25, China's soybean imports were high. In 2025/26, imports are expected to remain at a high level but may decline slightly due to poor forward import profits. Looking forward to 2026/27, imports are expected to increase slightly [23][24]. - Total Supply: China's total soybean supply is sufficient but with a decreasing increment. In 2025/26, the total supply reached a new high with a slowing growth rate. In 2026/27, it is expected to decline slightly year - on - year [34]. 2.2 Demand Side: Stable Growth - In 2024/25, domestic soybean consumption increased rapidly, mainly due to the low - price effect and domestic encouragement of crushing consumption. In 2025/26, domestic soybean consumption is expected to be stable. Overall soybean consumption is expected to increase steadily, with edible consumption growing steadily and crushing consumption showing annual fluctuations but an overall upward trend [41][42]. 2.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Marginal Contraction - China's soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to contract marginally. From 2025/26 to 2026/27, the ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio are expected to decline, and the domestic soybean balance sheet will also tighten [54]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to contract, and soybean prices are likely to move upward. China's total soybean supply will be stable with a slight decline, and demand will be stable. - Investment outlook: Consider the "rolling long positions" strategy. When the price is at a phased low or driven by bullish factors, consider "buying on dips" and "buying hedges to lock in costs." When the price rises to reflect the fundamental bullish factors, consider taking profits on long positions [58][59].