甲醇日报：库存压力仍存，仍需等待限气和宏观驱动-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure of methanol is prominent, and the import pressure in December still exists. The demand weakens at the end of the year, so there is a certain pressure on the rebound height. It is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory before the Spring Festival under the import pressure from December to January. Although the logic of winter gas restriction and rising coal prices still exists, it needs to be reflected in inventory reduction. In the short - term, a volatile approach should be adopted, and it is necessary to wait for the right time to rise [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 10.82 tons, and that in South China decreased by 0.68 tons. The significant inventory reduction in methanol ports this week was due to the serious impact on the first - port unloading and subsequent unloading of individual dock vessels, resulting in only 16.63 tons of visible foreign vessels unloaded during the cycle. In East China, there were almost no domestic vessels arriving at the port, and the strong back - flow to the inland supported the提货 of the mainstream storage areas along the river. Although a large - scale terminal in Zhejiang stopped at the beginning of the week, other consumption remained stable. The lower - than - expected unloading led to a significant inventory reduction in East China. In terms of imports, due to gas restriction in Iran, some plants stopped, and the operating rate decreased, with the daily average production capacity dropping to around 15,000 tons. However, Iran had loaded 125 tons in November, and the expected arrival volume within the year continued, so the import pressure still existed [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4.8%, with an expected value of 5% and a previous value of 4.90%. The year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 1.3%, with an expected value of 2.8% and a previous value of 2.90%. The onshore RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 7.0500 during intraday trading, the first time since October 9, 2024. The offshore RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 7.046 on December 15, hitting a new high since early October 2024. In November, the year - on - year increase in the consumer price index further expanded, and positive changes continued to emerge [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the market sentiment slightly improved, and the intraday market rebounded slightly, but the inventory pressure in the fundamentals was prominent [3][4]