Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil and meal industry is a weak and volatile trend [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The near - month contracts and spot prices of soymeal should focus on the pricing and transaction of the second batch of imported soybeans tomorrow. The far - month contracts are expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend under the expectation of a loose supply [2] - The overall trend of oils is weak and volatile. After the negative factors of palm oil and rapeseed oil are gradually realized, the market may enter a volatile state again. The upcoming US biofuel policy may provide some guidance [3] Summary by Related Content Soymeal - A private exporter reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [1] - As of December 11, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week but lower than 66% in the same period last year [1] - On December 12, the total transaction volume of soymeal at major oil mills across the country was 82,500 tons, a decrease of 68,400 tons from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were 25,000 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons, and far - month basis transactions were 57,500 tons, a decrease of 61,600 tons [1] - The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 58.33%, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous day. Soymeal inventory remained above 1.1 million tons, with a loose supply [1] - The pricing of the state - owned reserve soybean auction by Sinograin is the main factor determining the soybean crushing cost in the next quarter, and whether the auction price is close to the Brazilian import cost is the key to determining the spread between far - month and near - month contracts [1] Oils Palm Oil - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, a 46.98% increase from 190,533 tons in the same period last month [2] - The export report in the first ten days showed an increase, which may provide short - term support for palm oil. However, it is difficult for palm oil to have a unilateral market in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to India's restocking demand [3] Rapeseed Oil - CGC data showed that as of the week ending December 7, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 81.9% to 289,200 tons from 159,000 tons in the previous week. From August 1 to December 7, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 2.3764 million tons, a 41% decrease from the same period last year. As of December 7, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.2727 million tons [2] - Due to the strong foreign production increase expectation and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the premium of rapeseed oil has significantly retreated. After continuous decline, the market has regained rationality. Future attention should be paid to rapeseed purchases in the next quarter and the possibility of restarting Canadian rapeseed purchases [2] Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil market is in a period of loose supply and demand with no obvious driving factors. Before the US biofuel policy is fully implemented, it is difficult for soybean oil to have a trending market. The implementation of the US biofuel policy may be the biggest driving factor for soybean oil in the future [2]
油粕日报：偏弱震荡-20251215
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-15 11:16