铁矿日报：宏观政策层面干扰退化，钢厂补库尚未开始-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the context of the gradual decline of macro - event disturbances, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With weak rigid demand, inventory accumulation, and a stable and rising shipping volume, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The total global iron ore shipping volume this period is 3.5925 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 tons. The shipping volumes of Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased month - on - month. From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.9281 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 358,900 tons. The arrival volume continued to rise. The impact of the previous hurricane on foreign ore shipping gradually diminished, and there is a certain impetus for year - end shipping to increase. The overall shipping volume is expected to be stable and gradually recover [1]. Demand Side - The daily average pig iron output this week is 229,200 (- 3,100) tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.63% (- 1.92%); the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.92% (- 1.16%); the steel mill profitability rate is 35.93% (- 0.43%). The pig iron output continued its seasonal decline, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined more than seasonally. Blast furnaces are facing environmental protection and annual maintenance. The daily consumption and inventory of sintered powder ore both declined. There is still an expected continuous decline in pig iron output, and steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment remains at a slow pace [1]. Inventory Side - Port inventories continued to increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports this week was 16.11147 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,360 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 334,170 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. Port inventories continued to accumulate, and the pressure of ships at ports was relieved. The steel mill inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory of imported iron ore of national steel mills was 8.8342 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150,530 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills was 283,270 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,800 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.19 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 days. Steel mill inventories continued to decline, daily consumption continued to decline with the decrease in pig iron output, the inventory - to - sales ratio weakened, and steel mills were not eager to replenish inventory [2]. Profit Side - The landing profit of PB powder is - 13.33 (+ 10.42) yuan/ton, and the landing profit of Super Special powder is - 6.2 (+ 13.02) yuan/ton [2].