2026年豆粕期货年度行情展望：稳中求进，关注贸易与天气

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In normal circumstances, the price of soybean meal futures is expected to rise steadily in 2026. If there is adverse weather, the price may enter an upward cycle [2]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily due to the tight supply - demand balance sheet. The Brazilian soybean premium is neutral, and the price of soybean meal is affected by US soybean prices, Brazilian premiums, and weather factors [2][118][119]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 2025 DCE Soybean Meal Futures Price Review - From January to April 8, 2025, the price of soybean meal futures rose. The reasons included the bullish USDA report in January, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [6]. - From April 9 to November 28, 2025, the price entered an "interval operation" pattern, mainly trading "Sino - US trade sentiment", with five trading bands affected by trade news and market sentiment [7]. 2. 2026 Soybean Meal Futures Price Main Influencing Factors Analysis 2.1 Raw Material Soybean Supply and Demand: Tight US Supply, Neutral South American Supply - US Soybean Balance Sheet: Tight Supply - Demand in the Inventory Reduction Cycle - In 2025/26, US soybean supply decreased due to reduced planting, while demand decreased due to trade frictions. Supply decline was greater than demand, leading to a tight balance sheet [15]. - In 2026/27, the US soybean balance sheet is expected to remain tight. Planting area may increase slightly, supply and demand will both expand, but supply growth will be lower than demand, and ending stocks will decline [29][30]. - South American Soybean Balance Sheet: Neutral, First Contracting, Then Loosening - In 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet slightly contracted, and it is expected to be loose in 2026/27. The Argentine balance sheet slightly contracted in 2025/26 and is expected to be slightly loose in 2026/27 [32][33][48]. - Weather's Impact on the Balance Sheet - Abnormal weather can lead to a tight balance sheet and price increases. Currently, La Nina weather is expected to last until February 2026 and turn ENSO neutral from January to March 2026, which may affect South American soybean production [51]. 2.2 Soybean Meal Supply: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Import Profits - In 2025, China's soybean imports and soybean meal production were high, but the operating rate was low due to low profits and temporary shortages. In 2026, soybean imports may be stable or slightly decrease due to poor import profits, which may affect soybean meal supply [55][73]. 2.3 Soybean Meal Demand: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Breeding Profits - In 2025, soybean meal demand was good, with stable growth in livestock and poultry breeding, increased feed production, and a rising proportion of soybean meal addition. In 2026, demand may be stable or slightly decrease due to declining breeding profits, a possible decline in the scale of livestock and poultry breeding, and a slight decrease in the proportion of soybean meal use [96][97]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily, the Brazilian soybean premium is neutral. In normal weather, the balance sheets of Brazil and Argentina have minor contradictions. Adverse weather may tighten the balance sheets and drive up prices. Domestic soybean meal supply and demand may slightly contract, and the spot price may be slightly stronger [118][119][120][121][122]. - Investment strategy: Focus on the "buying on dips and trading in bands" strategy. Pay attention to possible driving events such as trade policies, adverse weather, and USDA reports [123].