Huachuang Securities·2025-12-15 11:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, specifically highlighting the brands Moutai and Wuliangye as key players [2][33]. Core Insights - The recent decline in high-end liquor prices has raised concerns in the market, with the liquor sector experiencing a 7% drop in December. Moutai's price fell from 1575 yuan to around 1500 yuan, while Wuliangye's price decreased from 800-810 yuan to 780 yuan [8][11]. - Moutai is implementing measures to restore channel confidence, with prices rebounding to around 1600 yuan after a significant drop. The company plans to control supply to stabilize prices and support distributor profits [15][20]. - Wuliangye is enhancing subsidies and adjusting pricing strategies to support distributors, including a significant discount on its products to reduce financial pressure on channels [29][30]. - The report anticipates that the liquor industry will prioritize volume over price in the coming year, with sales performance being crucial for recovery [32][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - The industry is facing a critical need for supply and demand rebalancing, with Moutai's price drop signaling significant market pressures. The report notes that the supply-demand mismatch has persisted, leading to a comprehensive imbalance [11][15]. Moutai's Strategy - Moutai is focusing on controlling supply to alleviate pressure on distributors, with plans to halt the release of unfulfilled quotas for 2025. The company aims to stabilize market order and ensure healthy operations [20][24]. - The report highlights that Moutai's pricing strategy is crucial for maintaining industry standards, with expectations of a gradual decline in performance metrics due to market conditions [28][29]. Wuliangye's Approach - Wuliangye is actively implementing multiple strategies to support channel profits, including significant discounts and promotional rewards for distributors. The company is also enhancing digital management to improve terminal control [29][30]. - The report emphasizes that Wuliangye's willingness to adapt and reduce prices is a positive step in addressing current market challenges [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on the pre-holiday recovery in the liquor market, recommending Moutai as a priority for investment due to its lower risk of performance decline. Other companies to watch include Gujing and Wuliangye, which are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [33].