关注工业硅与多晶硅套利机会

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 8% and a demand growth rate of about 5%, and the surplus is expected to further expand. For trading strategies, it is recommended to short SI2601 at high prices, buy put options, or adopt an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [9]. - In 2026, the supply and demand of polysilicon are expected to increase slightly, continue to improve, and basically reach a balanced state. The recommended strategy is to go long on PS2601 at low prices, buy call options, or adopt an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [10]. - The "Short SI2605 + Long PS2605" arbitrage strategy is recommended. When the PS2605 - 5SI2605 spread is in the range of 7500 - 8500, build a position at a ratio of 3 to 1. The reason is that the anti - involution policy is conducive to the spread expansion [43]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the spot and futures prices of industrial silicon showed a pattern of first decline, then rise, and then oscillation. The annual production capacity remained at a high level, with no substantial signs of capacity clearance. In 2026, the supply is expected to remain loose. The demand from polysilicon may decline, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy demand will grow steadily. The cost decreased in 2025, but most silicon plants had limited profit space. The futures inventory is low, while the spot inventory is high. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase by about 8%, and the demand by about 5%, with a continued loose supply - demand pattern [9]. Polysilicon - In 2025, the polysilicon price fluctuated greatly in a "V" shape. The production capacity increased in 2025, but the output decreased significantly due to losses and self - discipline production cuts. In 2026, if the supply - side reform progresses smoothly, the supply may increase slightly with demand. The domestic demand is weak, while the global demand will maintain a moderate growth. The cost decreased slightly in 2025, and the profit improved significantly. The inventory is high. In 2026, the supply and demand are expected to increase slightly and basically reach a balanced state [10]. Cost and Profit - In 2025, the power consumption of industrial silicon decreased, and the prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and electrodes declined, driving the production cost down. The full - cost of industrial silicon in the northwest region is mainly in the range of 7500 - 9000 yuan/ton, and in the southwest region, it is 8500 - 10000 yuan/ton during the wet season and 10000 - 11500 yuan/ton during the dry season, with an overall comprehensive cost of 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton [191]. Industry Chain Diagram - The industrial silicon industry chain involves raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, and silicon ore. Industrial silicon can be processed into organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, which are further used in various fields such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaic [47]. Industry International Situation - In 2025, the global industrial silicon trade pattern was structurally adjusted. China is the largest producer and exporter, with stable export volume but a decline in the export structure. The overseas production cost is high, and the capacity expansion willingness is low. The green certification requirements of multinational enterprises are increasing, which promotes the industry's transformation to low - carbon production. However, the overall green transformation of the industry still faces challenges [50][52][54]. Industry Domestic Situation - In 2025, the industrial silicon production capacity in China shifted westward, with the northwest region becoming the core production area. The domestic photovoltaic demand showed phased fluctuations and structural differentiation. The environmental protection inspection promoted the industry's transformation to low - carbon and intensive development, accelerating the clearance of small and medium - sized production capacities [57][59][61]. Supply - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.39%. The supply pressure was relieved to some extent. In 2026, there is an expectation of supply recovery. The new production capacity in 2025 - 2026 is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions, with a total of 1.88 million tons [73][82]. Demand - From January to October 2025, the cumulative actual consumption of industrial silicon was 2.6612 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.26%. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy are the main downstream consumers, accounting for 50%, 30%, and 16% respectively. In the future, the polysilicon demand may decline, the organic silicon demand is weak, and the aluminum alloy demand will grow steadily but with limited impact on the overall demand [117]. Inventory - The high inventory of industrial silicon has been the main factor suppressing the market. The inventory increased slightly in 2025, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in 2026. The polysilicon inventory is also high, and the inventory - building situation continues [31][10]. Technical Analysis - In the 2025 market, using the fast - line crossing above the slow - line as a buying signal had an accuracy rate higher than 75%. The fast - line is generally defined as the 5 - day moving average, and the slow - line as the 20, 40, or 60 - day moving average [245].