养殖产业链日报：供需宽松-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean market has short - term price support but faces long - term pressure due to factors like new - season harvest and weak demand [1]. - Corn has seen a price decline recently, with increased supply expected to suppress short - term upside, but there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1]. - The egg market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential price improvement after the festival if there is over - culling [2]. - The long - term supply of pigs is abundant, with high pressure on spot supply until February 2026, but far - month contracts may rise after the Spring Festival [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Soybean - In the domestic market, adverse weather in the Guan - nei soybean area has damaged quality, supporting the price of high - protein soybeans in Northeast China, and there is short - term farmer reluctance to sell [1]. - In the long run, the new - season domestic soybean harvest is good, and slow selling may lead to concentrated sales pressure later. Downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is in a shock pattern, with a risk of further decline if import soybean auctions decrease [1]. Corn - Corn had a short - term upward trend but then reversed due to negative rumors. The current seasonal selling peak and price decline have increased market supply and cooled prices [1]. - After the loosening of the reluctance - to - sell sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing short - term price increases. There may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1]. Egg - The egg spot price has stabilized, but the upward drive is weakening as it approaches the cost line. Short - term supply is loose, and demand during the double - festival stocking period is not outstanding [2]. - There has been some decline in the egg - laying hen capacity, but it is still higher than in previous years. It is difficult to have a trend - like market before the festival. After the festival, if there is over - culling, the price may improve, but the short - term drive is weak [2]. Pig - The long - term supply of pigs is abundant, with a high inventory of breeding sows and sufficient piglet supply, ensuring abundant theoretical supply until the first half of 2026 [2]. - In December, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased by about 3.2% month - on - month. The overall slaughter pressure is high until February 2026. However, the decline in the inventory of breeding sows may lead to a price increase in far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [2].