软商品日报：供需宽松下震荡，远月价格或存低估-20251215

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to show a slightly stronger sideways trend. Although there are signs of a rebound in the futures market due to speculation about future production cuts, the near - term upside is limited, and the impact of the expected 2026 production cut will be more evident after October [1]. - The sugar market is expected to remain in a weak sideways trend. The international and domestic sugar markets are in a state of oversupply, with the core contradiction being the rapid increase in supply and relatively flat demand [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - In 2026/27, the target area for cotton planting in Xinjiang is set at around 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu (over 10%) compared to the actual planting area of 41 - 43 million mu in 2025, indicating a significant structural adjustment in Xinjiang's cotton planting [1]. Sugar - StoneX's third revised report on the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 crushing season predicts a sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons. It also expects Brazil's central - southern region to produce 41.5 million tons of sugar in the 2026/27 crushing season, a downward revision from the previous forecast [2]. - The domestic sugar market is in a weak state of oversupply. The main sugar - producing areas in China have entered the peak of the new crushing season, leading to a concentrated release of new sugar supply. The core contradiction is the mismatch between rapid supply growth and relatively flat demand [2].