2026年白糖期货年度行情展望：政策托底

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global sugar market supply - demand fundamentals are bearish, with low - priced corn ethanol dragging down the valuation, and the New York raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The supply shortage in the domestic sugar market will narrow, the out - of - quota import window will open deeply, and the domestic market pricing is expected to be anchored to domestic production costs. The market will trade around the expectations of the total volume and rhythm of regular imports in the long term. The expected fluctuation range of Guangxi white sugar spot prices in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton [2][42]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Sugar Futures Trend Review - The sugar futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling in 2025. From January to March, the domestic sugar market was led by New York raw sugar and futures led the spot, with prices generally rising. From April, the New York raw sugar price dropped significantly from its high, pulling down domestic prices. From mid - May, the out - of - quota import cost fell below the spot price, pressing down the futures price. In October, the out - of - quota import cost dropped below the futures price, lowering the overall domestic valuation. In 2025, the domestic market generally had a positive basis, with the out - of - quota import cost fluctuating between 5,000 - 7,300 yuan/ton, the futures index between 5,200 - 6,200 yuan/ton, and the white sugar spot (Nanning) between 5,400 - 6,250 yuan/ton [5]. - The price trend was divided into three stages: from January to March, India's unexpected production cut and low precipitation in Brazil led to a surge in New York raw sugar; from April to June, a sharp drop in crude oil prices and accelerated sugar - cane crushing in Brazil caused the New York raw sugar to fall from its high; from July to December, with Brazil's output increasing and India's expected significant production increase, the New York raw sugar was weak at a low level, and the Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated downward [8]. 2. 2026 Sugar Futures Outlook: Policy Support 2.1 International Market: Bearish Fundamentals, Corn Ethanol Dragging Down Valuation - International Market Shifting from Supply Shortage to Surplus: The 24/25 sugar - crushing season had a global sugar supply shortage, with different institutions estimating shortages ranging from 292 million tons to 700 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market is expected to have a surplus, with estimates of surplus ranging from 100 million tons to 1.14 billion tons [9]. - Slight Increase in Brazil's Output: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's output decreased due to drought. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, although the sugar - cane crushing volume is expected to decline slightly, the sugar - making cane ratio (MIX) has increased, and the output is expected to increase by 90 million tons to 4.501 billion tons [11]. - India's Output Recovering: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar output decreased more than expected. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, due to favorable monsoon precipitation in 2024 and 2025 and increasing sugar - cane purchase prices, different institutions expect India's sugar output to increase by 480 million tons to 700 million tons [16]. - Thailand's Output Increasing and EU's Output Decreasing: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's sugar output is expected to increase due to the recovery of sugar - cane production and higher purchase prices. The EU's output is expected to decline due to reduced planting returns and drought [23]. - Low - priced Corn Ethanol Dragging Down Raw Sugar Valuation: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's corn ethanol output is expected to increase by 21% year - on - year. India's ethanol sugar consumption is expected to remain flat, and the increase in ethanol demand is replaced by other competitors [26][27]. 2.2 Domestic Market: The Focus of Trading is the Total Import Volume and Structure - Continued Increase in Domestic Output but a Still Large Supply Gap: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's sugar output increased, and supply and demand were basically balanced. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the output is expected to remain high, with a slight supply surplus and a cumulative inventory expectation [30][31]. - Probable Increase in Domestic Sugar Production Costs: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production cost decreased. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, if the sugar - cane purchase price remains unchanged, the production cost is likely to increase by 100 - 400 yuan/ton [34]. - The Way to Fill the Supply Gap Determines the Pricing Anchor: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the domestic sugar supply shortage is expected to narrow to 400 million tons. The way to fill the gap determines the pricing anchor. The actual total import volume and rhythm will be the key indicators to observe import policy orientation [38]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Conclusion: Internationally, increased production and inventory accumulation will put pressure on the New York raw sugar price. Domestically, the total import volume and structure remain the core of trading. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, if imports are strictly controlled, domestic market pricing will be anchored to domestic production costs [41]. - Investment Outlook: In 2026, the global sugar market is bearish, and the New York raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The domestic market supply shortage will narrow, and the domestic market pricing is expected to be anchored to domestic production costs. The expected fluctuation range of Guangxi white sugar spot prices in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton [42].