华联期货铜年报：供应将出现较大缺口，强势难改

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic environment in 2026 is complex. Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", the US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle, and China's fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, providing economic support for copper demand. - In terms of the copper industry, the global copper mine supply in 2025 was disturbed by various factors, and the output is expected to decline slightly. In 2026, the actual output growth is also limited. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is decreasing, and smelters face large - scale losses, leading to a possible decline in the growth rate of refined copper production. Overseas factors may exacerbate the shortage of domestic copper supply. - In 2026, as the first year of China's "15th Five - Year Plan", the demand in traditional industries will remain resilient, and the new kinetic energy sectors such as global new energy and AI will maintain high - speed development. The copper market will have a large supply gap. It is recommended to buy in the medium - to - long - term or conduct rolling long positions, with the Shanghai copper reference support range at 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Annual Viewpoints and Strategies - Strategy: Buy in the medium - to - long - term or conduct rolling long positions. The reference support range for Shanghai copper is 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Macro: Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", the US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle, and the US encourages investment to attract the return of the manufacturing industry. China will focus on the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, and accelerating the transformation to innovation - driven development. Fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5%. Non - ferrous metals are supported by the demand in power, new energy, and AI but may be volatile [9]. - Supply: In 2025, the global copper mine supply was disturbed, and the output is expected to decline slightly. In 2026, the actual output growth is limited. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is decreasing, and smelters face large - scale losses. China has been actively reducing production capacity, and many smelters will have to passively cut production in 2026. Overseas factors may exacerbate the shortage of domestic copper supply [9]. - Demand: In 2026, as the first year of China's "15th Five - Year Plan", the policy is expected to be favorable. The demand in traditional industries will remain resilient, and the new kinetic energy sectors such as global new energy and AI will maintain high - speed development. The copper market will have a large supply gap. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 18.5 million in 2026, with a copper consumption growth rate of about 15% and an absolute copper consumption increase of about 1.5 million tons. The total copper consumption in the photovoltaic and wind power sectors is expected to decline further. The global AI computing power demand will bring about 1 million tons of copper consumption increase [9]. 3.2 International Situation - Macroeconomic: The US encourages investment to attract the return of the manufacturing industry, and China will accelerate the transformation to innovation - driven development. China's GDP growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 5% [11]. - Geopolitics and Sino - US Relations Evolution: Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", and attention should be paid to the impact of the US mid - term elections, Supreme Court decisions, and economic data on policies. The long - term foundation of the US dollar system is loosening, and the internationalization of the RMB has entered a strategic window period, with Chinese enterprises accelerating their overseas expansion [12]. - Global Economic Pattern and Commodities: The global GDP in 2026 is expected to reach $124 trillion, but the growth rate will slow down marginally, and the economic scale gap between China and the US may widen to $11 trillion. Gold benefits from geopolitical risk premiums, crude oil is restricted by increased supply, and non - ferrous metals such as silver, copper, aluminum, and tin are supported by the demand in power, new energy, and AI but may be volatile [13]. 3.3 Domestic Situation - The domestic situation in 2026 will revolve around the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency. - Economic Policy and Macro - orientation: In 2026, macro policies will be more forward - looking, emphasizing the coordinated cooperation of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, and focusing on the combination of traditional and innovative tools, as well as cyclical and reform - based policies to promote high - quality development. - Innovation - Driven and New Kinetic Energy Cultivation: Innovation is regarded as a key measure, including formulating an integrated education, science, and talent plan, building international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area, and deepening the "AI +" initiative and improving AI governance. - Livelihood Security and Social Policy: Livelihood work focuses on "practicality", concentrating on key areas such as employment, education, and elderly care. - Reform Breakthrough and Risk Prevention: Reform will be a source of dividends, including promoting the construction of a unified national market, revitalizing existing assets, and preventing and resolving risks in key areas such as local government debt and real estate. - Challenges and Uncertainties: The external environment faces pressures such as global growth slowdown and geopolitical conflicts, while domestically, China needs to address economic structural imbalances, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries face significant uncertainties [15][16]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Policies - The US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle. China's fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, with possible cuts in the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates, which are beneficial to the stability of the capital market. - Fiscal Policy: Continue to implement a more active fiscal policy, maintain "necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure". In 2026, the deficit rate is expected to remain stable, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds will remain stable. Clean up and standardize unreasonable tax returns and subsidies to solve problems such as local protection and "involution - style" competition. - Monetary Policy: Continue to use the expression of "moderately loose", and propose to "flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts". Interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are expected to continue in 2026 [19]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Large - scale Copper Mine Discoveries: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated greatly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year. New large - scale copper mines are either in harsh geological conditions or politically unstable regions, with long development cycles and high costs. - Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution: In 2024, the top three countries in global copper mine production were Chile (23%), Congo (DRC) (15%), and Peru (11%); the top three countries in global refined copper production were China (45%), Congo (DRC) (9%), and Chile (7%). - Copper Concentrate Processing Fee TC and Global Copper Mine Output: As of December 12, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $43.13/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was $3,175/dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee was significantly lower than the break - even point. In 2025, the global copper mine output was expected to decline by 0.12%, and the new production in 2026 was only 533,000 tons. - Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory: In October 2025, China's copper concentrate import volume was 2.451 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to October, the import volume was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 50th week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 664,000 tons. - Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production: In September 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3333 million tons, with a shortage of 81,300 tons. From January to September, the production was 20.616 million tons, with a surplus of 124,600 tons. In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. - Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume: In October 2025, China's refined copper import volume was 323,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 2.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.45%. - Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference: In October 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. From January to October, the total import volume was 1.8956 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.11%. As of December 12, 2025, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 4,591 yuan/ton, higher than the reasonable price difference. - Electrolytic Copper Import Profit and Loss and Scrap Copper Invoice Points: No specific analysis content provided. - International Visible Inventory: As of December 11, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 165,000 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached 450,600 tons, a new high in the same period in recent years. - Domestic Inventory: Since May 2025, the domestic social inventory has fluctuated between 1 million and 2 million tons. As of December 11, 2025, the social inventory was 171,200 tons. The SHFE inventory has also remained low. - Primary Processing Market: In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In October 2025, China's import of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 4.46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In October 2025, the export of unwrought copper and copper products was 134,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1.2771 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. - Terminal Market - Power: From January to October 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 721.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the investment in power grid projects was 482.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. - Terminal Market - Real Estate: From January to October, China's real estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%, and residential investment was 5.6595 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.8%. - Terminal Market - Automobile: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 18.5 million in 2026, with a copper consumption growth rate of about 15% and an absolute copper consumption increase of about 1.5 million tons. - Terminal Market - Home Appliances: In October 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The cumulative output from January to October was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0%. The cumulative output from January to October was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The washing - machine output was 11.035 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%. The cumulative output from January to October was 101.078 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The color - TV output was 18.04 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. The cumulative output from January to October was 166.176 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In October 2025, China's home - appliance export volume was 35.1907 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the export volume was 371.1632 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. - Terminal Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power: As of the end of October 2025, China's total power - generation installed capacity was about 2.81 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The solar - power installed capacity was about 540 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 47.0%, and the wind - power installed capacity was about 400 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. It is estimated that the copper consumption in the photovoltaic and wind - power sectors will decline further in 2026. - Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast: Since 2020, the global copper demand structure has changed significantly. It is estimated that the proportion of green copper demand (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed that of construction demand in 2025. From 2026 to 2028, the global refined copper supply will be 27.97 million tons, 28.94 million tons, and 28.84 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year growth of 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.4%. The demand will be 28.13 million tons, 28.8 million tons, and 29.45 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year growth of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.3%. There will be continuous shortages of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons from 2026 to 2028 [116]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - From a long - term perspective, the Shanghai copper weighted index has formed an upward breakthrough in a triangle pattern. It is estimated that it will have strong support at the level of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [124].