MPOB马棕11月累库超预期，棕榈油价格下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil prices declined this week due to the MPOB data showing an unexpected inventory build - up in November, an expected increase in supply and decrease in demand in the first 10 days of December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to high - frequency data from palm oil producing areas, import demand changes in major consuming regions, and relevant national biodiesel policies [8][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - BMD Malaysian Palm Oil: As of December 12, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,018 ringgit/ton, down 3.23% from last week. The November production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, while exports dropped by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons. The production in the first 10 days of December is expected to increase by 6.87% month - on - month, and exports are predicted to decrease [8]. - DCE Palm Oil: The main contract switched to 2605. As of December 12, the 2601 contract closed at 8,608 yuan/ton, down 1.85% from last week, and the 2605 contract closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from last week. Spot prices from foreign suppliers declined, with a slight increase in inventory and weak downstream trading [11]. 3.2 Producing Area Weather - Malaysian Producing Area Weather: From December 6 - 12, most areas had precipitation at or below the historical normal level, except for some parts. From December 13 - 19, most areas are expected to have precipitation above or at the historical normal level, except for Sabah [14][16]. - Indonesian Producing Area Weather: From December 6 - 12, different parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan had varying precipitation levels compared to the historical normal. From December 13 - 19, rainfall in major palm oil - producing areas in Indonesia is expected to be above or at the historical normal level [19][21]. 3.3 International Supply and Demand - MPOB November Report: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in November increased by 13.04% month - on - month to 2.835 million tons. Production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, exports dropped by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month to 23,000 tons [23]. - December Forecast for Malaysian Palm Oil: - Export Forecast: AmSpec data shows a 10.31% decrease in exports from December 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month, and ITS data shows a 15% decrease. Exports to different regions and for different palm oil products also changed [30][31]. - Production Forecast: SPPOMA data indicates that from December 1 - 10, the yield per unit area increased by 7.24%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.07%, and production increased by 6.87% compared to the same period last month [32]. - Other Important Information: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach 20 - 20.5 million tons this year. The USDA estimates global 2025/26 palm oil production at 80.016 million tons, with a downward revision of 800,000 tons from last month [34]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand - Import Profit: The inversion of the palm oil import profit for January - March 2026 shipments widened this week [35]. - Palm Oil Transactions: The weekly palm oil trading volume increased to 1,600 tons as of December 12, up 900 tons or 129% from last week [38]. - Palm Oil Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 683,700 tons, up 4.62% from last week and 32.32% from the same period last year [40][41]. 3.5 Domestic and International Futures, Spot Prices, and Price Spreads of Oils - Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread: There are various data and charts showing the basis, monthly spread, and variety spread of palm oil, such as the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in different regions against the 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil, and the spreads between different oil varieties [43][49]. - Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest: There are data and charts presenting the palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and the open interest of the 05 contract [55]. - FOB Quotes: There are charts showing the FOB quotes of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia [58].