2026年度策略报告：“反内卷”催化周期复苏，“新经济”拉动新材料成长-20251215

Core Insights - The report anticipates a recovery in the chemical industry in 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the "anti-involution" trend, alongside macroeconomic stability during China's 14th Five-Year Plan [49] - The focus is on sectors such as petrochemical refining, agricultural chemicals, and new materials, which are expected to benefit from stable demand and resource price increases [49][50] Section Summaries 1. 2025 Chemical Industry Review and 2026 Outlook - The chemical industry showed significant differentiation in 2025, with the basic chemical sector rising by 32.16% and the petrochemical sector by 6.59% [6][13] - Key sub-sectors like potassium fertilizer and modified plastics saw substantial growth, while refining faced challenges due to declining oil prices [13][14] 2. "Anti-Involution" Catalyzes Cycle Recovery - The report highlights the marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in petrochemical refining and agricultural chemicals, which are expected to see a recovery in profitability as oil prices stabilize [49][62] - Agricultural chemicals, particularly fertilizers, are noted for their stable demand, especially during the spring farming season [49] 3. "New Economy" Drives New Material Growth - The report emphasizes the importance of high-performance materials and domestic substitution, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [51][52] - The demand for electronic chemicals is expected to rise significantly due to advancements in the semiconductor industry and AI applications [53] 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the petrochemical sector, such as China Petroleum and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability as oil prices stabilize [62] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, companies like Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are highlighted for their potential growth due to stable demand and resource advantages [70] 5. Capital Expenditure and Construction Projects - The report notes a significant slowdown in capital expenditure and ongoing projects in the chemical sector, indicating a potential shift towards demand recovery in 2026 [41][42] - The basic chemical industry saw a capital expenditure decline of 9.07% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to new investments [41] 6. Petrochemical Industry Trends - The petrochemical sector's revenue is closely linked to oil prices, which have shown signs of stabilization, potentially leading to improved industry conditions [46][62] - The report suggests that the reduction in global refining capacity could alleviate supply pressures, enhancing the industry's outlook [62] 7. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers - The agricultural chemicals sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in market conditions, with a focus on potassium and phosphorus fertilizers due to their critical role in food security [70][73] - The report highlights the importance of resource integration in the phosphorus chemical sector, which is poised for growth driven by stable demand in agriculture and new energy applications [78]