棉花大涨、菜油下挫

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price has risen significantly due to strong downstream demand, high spinning mill operating rates, improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, and expected improvement in textile exports. The rapeseed oil price has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may increase supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down. The egg price has a limited rebound due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The soybean meal shows a near - strong and far - weak trend. The hog price has limited rebound due to sufficient supply. The sugar price continues to fall due to the pressure of new sugar listing [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton futures prices have risen significantly, with downstream demand strong and spinning mills having high operating rates. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations has improved the export expectations of textiles, and the cotton main contract has broken through the 14,000 integer mark, with the upward space opened. Rapeseed oil has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may lead to increased supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The focus is on the significant rise of cotton. The main 2605 contract has broken through 14,000, opening the upward space. Supported by strong demand, as of December 4, the national cotton sales rate was 37.3%, a year - on - year increase of 21.9 percentage points. Xinjiang's industrial policy may reduce the cotton planting area by about 10% next year. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to continue to go long on dips [2] 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The focus is on the significant decline of rapeseed oil. The main 2605 contract has fallen significantly. Although the customs has tightened the inspection of non - genetically modified rapeseed oil imports, the impact on actual supply and demand is limited. The arrival of Australian rapeseed will increase supply, and overseas production is abundant. Palm oil is also weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a stop - loss reference of the 5 - day moving average at 9233 [3] 3.2.3 Egg - The focus is on the low - level rebound of eggs. The main 2602 contract has rebounded but has not changed the downward trend. The egg production is sufficient, the inventory consumption is the main task at all links, and the terminal demand support is weak. Technically, it is still weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - The focus is on the near - strong and far - weak trend of soybean meal. The January contract is strong, but the main 2605 contract is weak. Although there are rumors about the extension of soybean customs clearance time, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the oil mill's high - pressure production keeps the soybean meal inventory high. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [8] 3.2.5 Hog - The focus is on the low - level fluctuation of hogs. The main 2603 contract has limited rebound and continues to move sideways. Although the cold weather has increased consumer demand, the high inventory and the expected concentrated slaughter at the end of the year limit the rebound space. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [9][11] 3.2.6 Sugar - The focus is on the continued decline of sugar. The main 2605 contract has fallen after a brief rise. With the progress of sugar cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, the new sugar supply pressure is increasing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a resistance level at 5227 [12]