商业银行债券配置回顾与展望：因势而谋，重构平衡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", the previous rating was also "Overweight", and the rating remains unchanged [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, fiscal policy was proactive. The issuance scale of government bonds increased significantly year - on - year and the issuance rhythm was advanced, leading to an increase in banks' bond allocation scale. The bond allocation rhythm was low in the first half and high in the second half, with structural differentiation. Banks increased their allocation of treasury bonds and reduced their allocation of certificates of deposit [12]. - It is expected that in 2026, banks will still maintain a certain demand for bond allocation, with a slightly stronger intensity than in 2025. The estimated bond allocation amount for banks in 2026E is 9.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4% [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Commercial Bank Bond Allocation Review 1.1 Fiscal Policy Is Proactive, and Banks' Bond Allocation Scale Increases Year - on - Year - The issuance scale of government bonds increased significantly year - on - year in 2025, and the issuance rhythm was advanced. From January to November, the net financing of government bonds (treasury bonds + local special bonds) increased by 3.07 trillion yuan year - on - year, and 96% of the annual issuance plan was completed [17]. - From January to October, commercial banks' cumulative bond allocation scale was 8.2 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The allocation proportion of treasury bonds reached a peak in the past three years (56%), and the market share of narrow - sense interest - rate bond allocation also increased significantly [19] 1.2 Banks' Bond Allocation Rhythm Is Low in the First Half and High in the Second Half - In the first quarter, banks' bond allocation demand was weak due to the "good start" of credit and the upward pressure on long - term interest rates. Since the second quarter, with the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the decline in infrastructure and industrial investment, and the weakening of public - sector credit demand, combined with the periodic rise of long - term interest rates, banks' bond allocation demand has recovered [25] 1.3 Structural Differentiation: State - owned Big Banks and City Commercial Banks Strengthen Their Bond Allocation - State - owned big banks have a strong customer base and stable core deposits. Their deposit growth rate has continued to pick up this year, and their bond allocation intensity has increased moderately due to the imbalance between deposit and loan growth rates [32]. - The deposit growth of joint - stock banks has slowed down. Although their financial investment growth rate has generally recovered, their overall bond allocation intensity is weaker than that of state - owned big banks due to the limited scale of available funds [32]. - City commercial banks have sufficient available funds due to high deposit growth and high expansion rates, so their bond allocation intensity has increased [35]. - Rural commercial banks may have greater deposit - taking pressure and less new available funds. They have disposed of more financial investment assets to make up for profits, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of investment assets [35] 1.4 Increase in Treasury Bond Allocation and Decrease in Certificate of Deposit Allocation - The proportion of listed banks' financial investment has generally increased, with a significant increase in the investment proportion of state - owned banks. As of the end of October 2025, the proportion of treasury bond allocation in banks' stock bond investment structure increased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year, while the proportion of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1.4 percentage points [41]. - The increase in treasury bond allocation is due to the weak credit expansion of the private sector and the continuous increase in government financing demand. The decrease in certificate of deposit allocation is due to the continuous decline in the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit and the narrowing of the spread with banks' deposit - taking costs [46] 2026 Commercial Bank Bond Allocation Outlook 2.1 From the Total Amount Perspective: The Available Funds for Allocation Will Grow Steadily, and the Bond Allocation Demand Is Expected to Recover - Deposit growth has stabilized and increased. The deposit growth rate of residents has remained stable, and the deposit growth rate of non - financial enterprises has turned positive. The bond - issuing rate of large banks with good credit has increased significantly in the first three quarters, while that of small and medium - sized banks has decreased [51]. - The repair of the public - sector expenditure side will drive the recovery of effective financing demand, and the bond allocation scale of commercial banks is expected to increase steadily [57] 2.2 From the Duration Perspective - ① The demand for medium - and long - term bond allocation may increase under the trend of deposit term - to - maturity: Since 2018, the proportion of time deposits on the liability side of banks has continued to rise. It is expected that the trend of deposit term - to - maturity will continue in 2026, and banks may increase their allocation of medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds to cover the more rigid deposit interest - payment costs [60]. - ② Banks' allocation of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be restricted under duration constraints: Banks need to consider indicators such as interest - rate risk sensitivity, liquidity coverage ratio, and economic value change when allocating bonds. As of the end of 2024, some state - owned big banks' ΔEVE has exceeded 14% of their Tier - 1 capital, and their allocation space for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be relatively limited [64][68] 2.3 From the Liability Cost Perspective: The Cost of FTP for Proprietary Investment Decreases - Banks have actively adjusted the liability term structure and controlled costs. It is expected that the deposit repricing effect will continue in 2026, driving the cost of the liability side to decline further and the cost of proprietary bond investment to decrease, which is conducive to banks' bond allocation [79] 2.4 Summary of Banks' Bond Allocation Outlook - It is expected that in 2026, banks will still maintain a certain demand for bond allocation, with a slightly stronger intensity than in the previous year. From the perspective of asset growth rate, available funds are expected to grow steadily; from the perspective of asset - liability duration, banks may increase their allocation of medium - and long - term bonds, but the allocation of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be restricted; from the perspective of liability cost, banks' willingness to allocate bonds in the financial market may be further enhanced [82]