Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-15 12:45Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The German government has officially passed legislation to implement the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), which is expected to boost the demand for HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) and UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [4]. - The RED III directive, effective from 2023, mandates EU member states to transpose it into national law by May 21, 2025, with Germany setting a higher greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 19% for gasoline and diesel by 2030, compared to the EU's unified target of 14.5% [4][5]. - The cancellation of double counting for advanced biofuels is expected to convert "accounting quotas" into "physical volumes," significantly increasing the demand for HVO and UCO [4]. - The removal of POME (Palm Oil Mill Effluent) from compliance eligibility is set to take effect in 2027, although its impact is considered limited due to the declining share of palm oil in EU biodiesel feedstocks [4]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for biodiesel development across road transport, shipping, and aviation, with specific companies recommended for investment: Shandong Hi-Speed Energy, Hainan New Energy Technology, Longkun Technology, and Weili [4]. Summary by Sections Legislative Developments - The German cabinet's approval of the RED III legislation is a significant step towards enhancing HVO and UCO demand [4]. - The legislation aims to increase the GHG reduction target for the transportation sector, with a gradual rise to 59% by 2040 [4]. Market Implications - The cancellation of double counting is anticipated to enhance HVO profitability, indirectly raising SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices due to reduced supply [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the legislative progress in other EU member states as they implement RED III [4]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector are evaluated with projected net profits and market capitalizations, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - For instance, Shandong Hi-Speed Energy is projected to have a net profit of 1.05 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 33 [6].