——11月经济数据点评：11月经济：从分化看转型

Consumption - In November, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, significantly below the expected 2.9%[1][7] - Retail sales of goods fell sharply, with categories like gold and jewelry down 29.1% to 8.5%, and home appliances down 4.8% to -19.4%[2][8] - Service retail sales showed positive performance, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.4%[2][8] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November recorded a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, but this was an improvement of 2.1 percentage points from October[3][39] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9 percentage points to -6.7%, supported by new special bonds and policy financial tools[3][17] - Manufacturing investment rose by 4.3 percentage points to -3.6%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors[3][41] Real Estate - Real estate development investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 6.9 percentage points to -29.9% in November[2][43] - New construction and completion rates remained in negative growth, with new starts down 27.7% and completions down 25.4%[2][43] - Despite falling prices, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 7.7 percentage points to -17.9%[2][43] Production - Industrial added value maintained a growth rate of 4.8% in November, only slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3][26] - The production of food and beverages saw significant recovery, with growth rates of 5.6% and -0.6% respectively[3][26] - The automotive sector experienced a notable decline, with production down 4.9 percentage points to 11.9%[3][26] Policy Implications - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated during the policy transition, with a shift from goods consumption to service consumption[4][31] - The government's focus on "new investment" areas is beginning to show positive effects, with overall investment expected to stabilize in the future[4][31] - Risks remain from external environmental changes and the pace of growth policy implementation may not meet expectations[5][50]