去“内卷化”背景下：中国光伏制造业的价值重构与发展新范式

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry due to overcapacity and price competition, suggesting a need for structural reforms and regulatory measures to stabilize the market [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic manufacturing sector is experiencing severe overcapacity and price competition, leading to deteriorating financial conditions for many companies. The industry is undergoing a transformation driven by national strategies to combat "involution" competition [2][4][5]. - The Chinese government is implementing a series of policies aimed at regulating capacity and pricing to foster a healthier competitive environment in the photovoltaic industry [11][13][21]. - Despite current challenges, the long-term growth potential of the global photovoltaic market remains significant, with expectations of increased demand driven by global climate goals [37]. Summary by Sections Industry Status - The photovoltaic manufacturing capacity in China has expanded rapidly, with 2024 effective capacities for polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules reaching 3.394 million tons/year, 1394.9 GW, 1426.7 GW, and 1388.9 GW respectively, representing over 90% of global capacity [5][9]. - Price declines in 2024 were significant, with polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules experiencing drops of 40%, 56%, 40%, and 30% respectively [7][8]. - Financial metrics for the industry show a decline in revenue and profitability, with average operating profit margins dropping to 4.17% in 2024 [9][10]. Measures Against "Involution" - The government and industry associations are collaborating to implement measures to combat low-price competition, including legal definitions of compliance and industry self-regulation [11][13][20]. - Policies introduced include raising technical standards for new projects and establishing minimum capital requirements to curb irrational capacity expansion [17][24]. - A self-regulatory agreement among major photovoltaic manufacturers aims to implement a quota system to manage production and stabilize prices [14][18]. Future Development Paradigm - The report emphasizes the need for a three-pronged approach involving government guidance, industry collaboration, and corporate transformation to overcome the current challenges in the photovoltaic sector [21][23]. - The anticipated timeline for capacity clearing indicates that battery production will see the fastest exit of excess capacity by mid-2026, while polysilicon and wafer segments may take longer [33][35]. - The global photovoltaic market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching over 5400 GW of installed capacity by 2030, driven by international climate commitments [37].