2026年黑色金属年度行情展望：需求慢复苏，炉料定节奏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction of black commodities in 2026 lies in the game between the slow recovery of steel demand and the relatively loose supply of furnace materials. Demand is a slow - changing variable, and its growth mainly relies on manufacturing exports. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the pattern next year is likely a process of low - cost replacing high - cost. The supply rhythm of coking coal is determined by policy changes, and macro variables may amplify market sentiment and price fluctuations [3]. - In 2026, steel demand may increase slightly by 1.5%. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign demand is expected to increase. Supply will follow the demand recovery. The steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [33][86][87]. - Iron ore will continue its capacity expansion process. The current high valuation may face challenges in the first half of next year. The supply increment of mainstream mines will be significant, but there are uncertainties in the capacity - climbing rhythm. The global iron ore demand may increase slightly, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse [6][138]. - The coal - coke market may show a tight - balance pattern. The supply of coking coal will show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, and imports may impact the domestic market. Coke production will be driven by cost and demand [7][191]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets will continue the situation of over - capacity. The price is mainly determined by cost differences in the short - term and supply - demand in the long - term. The price is expected to fluctuate with cost support and high - inventory suppression [283][285]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Black Commodity Price Trend Review - The black commodity market in 2025 showed the characteristics of "weak supply and demand of steel, and cost first weak then strong". The iron ore had a 2% increase, while other varieties had a decline of 4% - 14%. The market can be divided into four stages: narrow - range oscillation from January to February, overall weakness from March to May, V - shaped reversal from June to July, and oscillation from August to November [10]. 3.2 2025 Steel Demand Calibration - Different institutions' data on molten iron and scrap steel consumption in 2025 showed large differences. Using the iron ore balance sheet to calculate molten iron production as the benchmark, the total demand in 2025 was basically the same as last year [15][27][30]. 3.3 2026 Steel Operation Logic 3.3.1 Demand Side - In 2026, steel demand may increase by 1.5%. Domestic demand: infrastructure offsets the decline of real estate, and the steel consumption is controllable. Real estate's steel - consumption ratio has narrowed significantly. Infrastructure investment structure is transforming, and the steel - consumption growth rate may decline to about 5%. Manufacturing: domestic consumption may improve, and foreign demand will increase through exports. Steel exports will remain high [33]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - Globally, steel production is expected to grow by 2% in 2026. In China, supply is expected to increase by 1.4% following the demand recovery, and the steel variety structure reflects the economic transformation [71][78]. 3.3.3 Steel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to increase by 1.6%, and exports will remain high. Supply is expected to increase by 1.5%, with molten iron having a larger supply increase than scrap steel [83][84][85]. 3.3.4 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the core contradiction of steel is between the slow recovery of demand and the cost loosening of furnace materials. Steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The investment strategy is to go long near the iron ore cost line and go short when the electric - arc furnace is profitable during peak - electricity periods [86][87][88]. 3.4 2026 Iron Ore Operation Logic 3.4.1 Supply - Mainstream mines: the four major mines will contribute the main supply increment in 2026. Fortescue contributed the main increment in 2025. The production of each mine has different performances, and new projects are in progress [90][97][110]. - Non - mainstream and domestic mines: overseas non - mainstream mines' production is expected to increase by about 25 million tons in 2026. Domestic mines' production is expected to be basically the same as in 2025. There is a risk that the capacity - climbing rhythm of some projects may be lower than expected [126][130][133]. 3.4.2 Demand and Supply - Demand Balance - Global iron ore demand is expected to increase slightly in 2026, but the oversupply situation will be more obvious, with a supply - demand difference of over 20 million tons [134][136]. 3.4.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Iron ore will continue capacity expansion in 2026. The high valuation may face challenges in the first half of the year, but macro factors will support the valuation. The price trend may repeat the V - shaped reversal of this year [138]. 3.5 2026 Coal - Coke Operation Logic 3.5.1 Supply Outlook - Domestic: coking coal production in 2026 is expected to show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, with a year - on - year micro - increase of 0.5% [148]. - Overseas: Mongolian and Russian coal may impact the domestic market. Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase, but there is a risk of expectation difference. Russian coal imports are restricted by factors such as transportation capacity and cost [152][156][166]. 3.5.2 Coke - Backward coke - oven capacities will be phased out. The coke market will be driven by cost and demand, and the supply - demand will continue the tight - balance situation [175][176]. 3.5.3 Demand Outlook - In 2026, the demand for coal - coke will be supported by molten iron production. The game between weak reality and strong expectation and the inflection point of the replenishment cycle will increase price volatility [183]. 3.5.4 2026 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand game of coal - coke will enter a normal stage in 2026. The domestic coking coal supply will be adjusted by policy, and imports will be an important factor [187]. 3.5.5 2026 Coal - Coke Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The coal - coke price bottom may have been tested in 2025. The market will show a tight - balance pattern, with both total and structural contradictions. The investment should focus on the rhythm [191]. 3.6 2026 Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Operation Logic 3.6.1 2025 Manganese - Silicon Price Trend Review - The manganese - silicon market in 2025 showed a V - shaped trend, with four stages: rising and then falling in the first stage, oscillating downward in the second stage, rising steadily in the third stage, and oscillating in the fourth stage [193]. 3.6.2 2025 Silicon - Iron Price Trend Review - The silicon - iron market in 2025 had a downward - moving price center, with three stages: falling in the first stage, rising and then falling in the second stage, and oscillating in the third stage [201]. 3.6.3 Supply Side - Manganese - silicon: the supply is in an over - capacity situation. The production is concentrated in the north, and the south is under operating pressure. The future capacity will continue to gather in the main production areas [208][209][221]. - Silicon - iron: the capacity expansion rate has slowed down, but there is still over - capacity. The production is concentrated in the northwest, and the elimination and replacement of backward capacity will be the mainstream [222][223][238]. 3.6.4 Demand Side - The demand for ferroalloys is mainly driven by steel production. In 2026, steel production is expected to increase, and the demand for ferroalloys will be slightly boosted. The export of ferroalloys is under pressure [239][240][252]. 3.6.5 Cost and Inventory - Cost: the cost of manganese - silicon is mainly affected by manganese ore, electricity, and chemical coke prices. The cost of silicon - iron first decreases and then increases [254][271][272]. - Inventory: the manganese - silicon inventory is high, and the inventory inflection point may be postponed. The silicon - iron inventory is relatively healthy [274]. 3.6.6 2025 Annual Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply of ferroalloys is affected by profit and policy. The demand is mainly determined by steel production. In 2026, the supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will continue to be affected by over - capacity [277][278][280]. 3.6.7 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the price of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will follow the logic of "short - term cost determines the direction, long - term supply - demand determines the center". The investment strategy is to focus on cost and supply - demand changes, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [282][283][285].