Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Chemically, on Friday night, there was an abnormal rise with the general increase of domestic industrial products. Over the weekend, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects and the rectification of involution - style competition. Super - oversold varieties in the chemical industry generally had a long - yang line with position reduction. Short - term attention should be paid to whether it will drive an hourly upward movement similar to the "anti - involution" expectation in July. For unilateral long positions, priority should be given to varieties that increased positions and rose today (PX, synthetic rubber). Crude oil is still weakly driven by supply - demand and macro factors recently, and it is necessary to wait for geopolitical drivers [2]. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The medium - term expectation of supply surplus remains the main market tone, but short - term supply and demand are still strong. The demand and operation of US refineries have both increased, and there is little short - term supply - demand contradiction. In terms of the macro aspect, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected in December, but Powell hinted that the interest rate cut in January might be suspended. Instead of cutting interest rates, the Federal Reserve decided to expand the balance sheet to directly provide short - term market liquidity, and short - term macro risks are not large. Geopolitical factors are still the main short - term trading point. The judgment on the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is pessimistic. The market might have over - traded the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire at the end of November, and there is an upward - revision risk later. It is judged that the risk in the Caribbean region will escalate, waiting for a pulse - type upward movement after the event occurs (refer to the situation in Iran in July). Short - term bullish thinking (but difficult to trade due to geopolitical drivers), waiting for medium - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement in the medium term [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day. The hourly - level technical structure is downward, but it is regarded as an oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4][5]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Port inventories continued to decline, and the pressure of high inventories has been alleviated, but the year - on - year pressure is still relatively large. Maintaining a medium - term bearish view, in the short term, with the reduction of pressure and the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [9]. - Technical Analysis: Styrene shows a short - term oscillating structure at the hourly level. Today, it fell with position reduction, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: There is still no major contradiction in rubber in the short term. The scale of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict this time is larger than that in July, but it is still limited to the disputed area far from the main rubber - producing areas of the two countries, and the actual impact on supply is limited. There is still a lack of major contradictions in the supply - demand aspect of rubber itself, and it can be regarded as an oscillation [10]. - Technical Analysis: Rubber shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term oscillating structure at the hourly level. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core logic of synthetic rubber is still guided by the raw material butadiene. The raw material butadiene replenished inventory due to the high profits of downstream synthetic rubber. The high - level port inventory has decreased significantly by nearly 13% for two consecutive weeks. At the same time, the Asian butadiene operation rate has declined slightly, and its own supply - demand has improved in the short term, temporarily reducing the cost pressure on synthetic rubber. The short - term strengthening of the raw material butadiene may drive synthetic rubber to have an hourly - level upward market [12]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it increased positions and broke through the key pressure of 10,850. The hourly - cycle structure turned bullish, and the short - term support is at the 10,590 line. The strategy is to prepare for low - buying in the hourly cycle, and you can start from the 15 - minute small cycle (look for opportunities when the 15 - minute correction does not break 10,730 and then there is a positive - line reversal) [12][15]. (5) PX - Logic: There are no new capacity investment plans for PX plants in the next six months, and there are maintenance plans for multiple plants in the second quarter of next year. The medium - term supply pressure is not large. Currently, the downstream PTA still maintains a relatively high operation rate, but with the increase of PTA plant maintenance and the impact of the polyester off - season, the demand expectation has weakened. The overall supply - demand is still in a relatively balanced state. In addition to its own supply - demand, two aspects should be mainly concerned. On the one hand, the cost - end crude oil has been weak recently, and attention should be paid to when the geopolitical drivers brought by the unexpected Russia - Ukraine ceasefire plan and the possible escalation of the situation in Venezuela will appear. On the other hand, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned again over the weekend to control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects, and PX is among them. Although it is an old topic, domestic varieties had abnormal movements on Friday night, and it may be traded in the short term (next week) to drive the market upward. At the same time, it was observed that the PX monthly spread structure strengthened again last week, indicating that the market may end the correction. The short - term bullish thinking is still maintained [17][19]. - Technical Analysis: PX shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it increased positions, rushed up, and then pulled back slightly at the end of the session. The short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The standard support at the hourly level is at the 6,700 line, and the 15 - minute level has turned bullish again. The strategy is to hold long positions at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the 6,700 line. Hold long positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss reference at the 6,740 line of the 15 - minute closing price [19]. (6) PTA - Logic: The polyester demand is in the off - season and faces a seasonal decline. There is a slight pressure on PTA due to short - term inventory accumulation, but the profit of upstream PX is relatively high, and the expectation of PTA supply decline is not large. In the short term, it mainly follows the cost PX [22]. - Technical Analysis: PTA shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it rushed up and then pulled back slightly at the end of the session. The volume cooperation is weaker than that of PX. The short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The support at the hourly level is at the 4,620 line (01 contract). The strategy is to still hold long positions at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the 4,620 line (01 contract) [22]. (7) PP - Logic: The fundamental loose pattern of PP - plastics continues, but after the market was super - oversold, combined with the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [23]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure of PP at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, and the hourly closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 6,180. The hourly - level decline may end. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23][25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory flows to the inland, maintaining continuous inventory reduction, but the downstream MTO maintenance has appeared, and the expectation is still weak. In addition to supply - demand, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects and the rectification of involution - style competition over the weekend. Domestic industrial products had a general increase on Friday night, and the methanol market may rebound following the sentiment in the short term [27]. - Technical Analysis: Methanol shows a medium - term downward and short - term downward structure at the daily level. It is regarded as a rebound today. The short - term pressure above the 05 contract is at the 2,150 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The supply - demand aspect still has a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, but the current valuation is low and there is no value in chasing short positions. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and PVC is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound [30]. - Technical Analysis: PVC shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level, and the short - term downward structure at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, there was a huge long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, and the market showed obvious signs of short - sellers leaving. At the same time, technically, it stood above the short - term pressure of 4,270. The hourly - level decline may end. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle, and in the 15 - minute small cycle, you can look for opportunities to try long positions after a pullback and then an increase in positions and a positive - line reversal [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants have expanded, and the maintenance plans have increased. The domestic supply pressure is expected to be alleviated, but the port inventory is still accumulating, and the increase in port pre - arrivals continues to put pressure on the market fundamentals. However, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and in the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound. In the short term, ethylene glycol may run weakly in an oscillating manner [32][33]. - Technical Analysis: EG shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume for a rebound, but it has not yet stood above the short - term pressure of 3,700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The fundamental loose pattern of PP - plastics continues, but after the market was super - oversold, combined with the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [34]. - Technical Analysis: Plastic shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, but it has not yet stood above the short - term pressure of 6,550. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [34]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory of soda ash continues. Although the inventory has decreased continuously in the past two weeks, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term inventory pressure has improved, but there is no reversal driver for the medium - term fundamentals, and the cost - performance of continuing to hold unilateral short positions has decreased. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and soda ash is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound. The remaining short positions established in August can stop profit and exit [38]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure of soda ash at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, it had a long - yang line with heavy volume and position reduction, and the hourly price stood above the short - term pressure of 1,120. The short - term decline may end. For the unilateral strategy, stop profit for the remaining short positions at the hourly cycle established in August [38]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory remains unchanged. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand. With the decline of the alumina operation rate due to losses, the demand for alumina has weakened. The supply - demand drive is still downward without a reversal, but there is no space for chasing short positions in the current market. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and caustic soda is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound [42]. - Technical Analysis: Caustic soda shows a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with heavy volume and position reduction, and the hourly price tested the short - term pressure of 2,180 but has not effectively stood above it. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].
关注发改委高耗能项目管控是否带来类似7月反内卷的预期推动上涨
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-12-15 13:11