Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [2] Core Viewpoints - The core logic driving crude oil prices remains the pressure of oversupply, and geopolitical events have a limited impact on price increases [3]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand rhythm mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will be an upward pressure in the medium term; the low-sulfur fuel oil market will continue to be weak [4]. - The demand for asphalt is differentiated between the north and south, and the price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals and falling oil prices [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - US crude oil drilling and fracturing activities are at a low level at the end of the year. A tanker carrying about 1.85 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude was seized, but the geopolitical factors have limited impact on boosting oil prices due to the oversupply situation [3]. - Geopolitical developments related to Russia are making the crude oil supply-demand structure more relaxed, and the core of price fluctuations is the pressure of oversupply [3]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil High-sulfur Fuel Oil - On the supply side, the geopolitical impact continues. The shipments from the Middle East have decreased slightly in the past two weeks, with Saudi exports rising and Iranian and UAE exports falling, possibly due to sanctions and logistics disruptions. US seizure of an Iranian tanker is expected to continue affecting Middle East supply. Russian shipments have also significantly declined since early December [4]. - Singapore and Middle East inventories are rising, and floating storage due to logistics blockages has accumulated, resulting in sufficient supply. On the demand side, low crack spreads and improved coking profits boost feedstock demand, and the pre-Spring Festival shipping peak may support bunker demand. Short-term crack spreads may be supported by supply-demand mismatches, but high inventories will be a pressure in the medium term [4]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market remains in a loose pattern. Domestic production is expected to decline due to limited low-sulfur quotas in December, which may increase import demand. However, overseas supply pressure still exists, and future supply is expected to gradually increase, so it will continue to be weak [4]. Asphalt - Demand is differentiated between the north and south. In the north, winter storage is the main demand, but buyers are cautious due to high prices. In the south, supported by real demand, refineries have reduced production, and inventory has decreased. Recently, some major refineries in East and South China have offered significant shipping discounts, and the de-stocking of social and refinery inventories has slowed down. The price is under pressure due to falling oil prices and weak fundamentals [5]
能源日报-20251215
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-12-15 13:06