Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-15 13:18Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The recent approval of Germany's RED III legislation is anticipated to boost the demand for HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) and UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [4]. - The legislation raises greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets for gasoline and diesel to 19% by 2030, significantly higher than the EU's unified target of 14.5% [4]. - The cancellation of double counting for advanced biofuels is expected to convert "accounting quotas" into "physical volumes," providing a substantial increase in demand for HVO and UCO [4]. - The removal of POME (Palm Oil Mill Effluent) from compliance eligibility is set to take effect in 2027, although its impact is considered limited due to the declining share of palm oil in EU biodiesel feedstocks [4]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for biodiesel across road transport, shipping, and aviation, with specific companies recommended for investment: Shandong Hi-Speed, Hainan Xinneng, Longkun Technology, and Weili [4]. Summary by Sections RED III Legislation Impact - The RED III directive requires EU member states to implement national laws by May 21, 2025, with Germany's legislation already in place [4]. - The overall renewable energy target for the EU is set to reach at least 42.5% by 2030, with a focus on increasing the share of renewable energy in the transport sector to 29% [5]. Company Valuation - Key companies in the sector have varying market capitalizations and profit forecasts, with Shandong Hi-Speed projected to have a net profit of 1.05 billion in 2025, while Hainan Xinneng is currently not forecasted to generate profit [6].