2026年银行板块投资策略：从业务与业绩角度看稳健性，两条选股主线

Group 1: Credit Momentum Analysis - Credit growth is expected to continue a slight downward trend, supported by new infrastructure, new industrialization, and technology finance [5][10] - New infrastructure loans are anticipated to rebound, with structural adjustments continuing, as new infrastructure takes on momentum [5][10] - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, with a market space of 10 trillion yuan over five years for traditional industry upgrades [5][10] - Technology finance loans are likely to sustain high growth, with high-tech enterprise loans currently only accounting for about 10% of total loans, indicating room for improvement [5][10] Group 2: Bank Revenue and Profitability - Interest income is expected to recover, leading to a projected 2.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for listed banks in 2026, with net profit expected to rise by 2.3% [5][10] - The net interest margin is projected to decline by 2.5 basis points in 2026, but the decline is expected to be significantly smaller than in 2025 [5][10] - Non-interest income is expected to see growth, particularly from wealth management fees, as deposit migration continues [5][10] Group 3: Funding Analysis - The estimated total investment from insurance funds, mutual funds, and wealth management into the banking sector is projected to be 224.4 billion yuan, potentially driving a 7.3% increase in the sector [5][10] - Insurance funds are expected to contribute 125 billion yuan to the banking sector, leading to a 4.1% upward potential [5][10] - Mutual funds are projected to bring in an additional 254 billion yuan from active funds and 706 billion yuan from passive funds [5][10] Group 4: Asset Quality - Overall asset quality remains stable, with corporate loans being continuously optimized while retail risks are gradually revealing [5][10] - The non-performing loan ratio for retail loans is 1.27%, showing a slight increase compared to the beginning of the year, but the growth rate remains stable [5][10] - The current high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for mortgages is estimated to be between 1.9% and 4.1%, indicating manageable risk levels [5][10] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality regional city commercial banks and high-dividend stocks as dual investment lines [5][10] - The banking sector is expected to maintain strong certainty, with a stable return on equity (ROE) projected at 8% by 2028 [5][10] - Recommended banks include Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Qilu Bank for their high ROE and resilience [5][10]