医药行业创新药&链 2026 年度投资策略：周期向上，兼具成长

Group 1: Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is entering a clear upward cycle with significant growth opportunities in innovative drugs and the innovation chain, driven by supportive policies and a global expansion trend [3][10] - The Chinese innovative drug sector is increasingly favored by international capital, with a record high of 149 transactions in 2025, accounting for 11% of global transaction numbers and 29% of total transaction value [10][37] - The introduction of commercial health insurance into the medical insurance negotiation process in 2025 is expected to diversify the payment system for innovative drugs, enhancing their market accessibility [10][37] Group 2: Innovative Drugs - The upward policy cycle supports innovation, with the latest round of drug procurement entering a new phase of quality-price balance, as seen in the 11th batch of centralized procurement [10][30] - The global patent cliff from 2025 to 2037 is projected to create a gap exceeding $300 billion, prompting multinational corporations (MNCs) to pursue business development (BD) and acquisitions to fill this gap [10][45] - Chinese innovative drugs are positioned to capitalize on this trend, particularly in areas such as second-generation immune-oncology (IO) and next-generation antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [10][50] Group 3: Innovation Chain - The innovation chain, including Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMO) and Contract Research Organizations (CRO), is benefiting from both domestic and international demand, with CDMO orders showing a positive growth trend [12][12] - The overseas biopharmaceutical investment environment is improving, with a notable increase in funding as interest rates decline, which is expected to enhance the overall industry cycle [12][12] - The life sciences service sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by increasing domestic research demand and improved conditions for innovative drug development [12][13] Group 4: Market Opportunities - The domestic market for innovative drugs is projected to grow significantly, with over 400 innovative drugs approved since 2020, indicating strong internal growth potential [62][66] - As innovative drug companies transition to profitability, there is a potential shift in valuation methods from P/Peak Sales to PE, attracting broader investment interest [66] - Key companies to watch include AiLisi, Yunding Xinyao, and Kangnuo Ya, which are expected to benefit from the commercialization of innovative products [66]