批零社服行业：11月社零同比+1.3%，关注扩内需战略拉动

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Buy [3] Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, with total retail sales amounting to 4.4 trillion CNY. This represents a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to October 2025. Excluding automobiles, the total retail sales reached 3.9 trillion CNY, growing by 2.5% year-on-year [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the domestic demand expansion strategy and suggests that the retail sector is expected to enter a profit recovery phase as adjustments in supermarkets progress [6] - The report highlights the performance of various categories, noting that food and beverage retail sales grew by 6.1% and 2.9% respectively, while jewelry sales saw a significant increase of 8.5% [6] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - November 2025 saw a total retail sales of 4.4 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points from October 2025. Urban retail sales were 3.8 trillion CNY (1.0% growth), while rural retail sales were 0.6 trillion CNY (2.8% growth) [6] - The breakdown of retail sales shows that commodity retail was 3.8 trillion CNY (1.0% growth), and dining revenue was 0.6 trillion CNY (3.2% growth) [6] Category Performance - In November, the retail sales growth rates for staple food and beverages were 6.1% and 2.9%, respectively. However, tobacco and alcohol sales declined by 3.4% [6] - Optional consumer goods such as cosmetics and jewelry saw growth rates of 6.1% and 8.5%, while building materials, furniture, and home appliances experienced declines of 17.0%, 3.8%, and 19.4% respectively [6] E-commerce Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate slightly decreased, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 14.5 trillion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 9.1%. The penetration rate was 25.9%, showing a 0.7 percentage point increase from the previous month but a 0.8 percentage point decrease year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - Retail: Focus on companies like Bubu Gao, Huijia Times, Yonghui Supermarket, and Chongqing Department Store as the industry is expected to enter a profit recovery phase [6] - Cosmetics: The report recommends companies such as Shumei Co., Mao Ge Ping, and Shui Yang Co. due to their strong performance and market positioning [6] - Jewelry: Companies with a high proportion of fixed-price products and a high-end branding strategy are highlighted, such as Laopuyin and Mankalon [6] - Tourism: Recommendations include Changbai Mountain and companies with acquisition expectations like Xiyu Tourism [6] - Education: Focus on undervalued vocational education stocks like China Oriental Education and Action Education, as well as leading companies like Xueda Education [6]