朝闻国盛：11月消费、投资大降的背后

Core Insights - The overall economic performance in November shows a significant decline in consumption and investment, with consumption down for six consecutive months and retail sales growth at 1.3%, the lowest in nearly three years [2] - Fixed asset investment has been negative for three consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 12% in both October and November, and real estate investment showing a record drop of 30.3% in November [2] - The weak economic indicators suggest insufficient internal demand, with low inflation and a PMI below the threshold for eight months, indicating a lack of economic momentum [2] Consumption and Investment - Consumption has decreased for six months, with retail sales growth at 1.3%, marking the lowest level in almost three years [2] - Fixed asset investment has shown a negative cumulative year-on-year growth for three months, with November's investment down 12% compared to the previous year [2] - Real estate investment has been particularly weak, with a year-on-year decline of 30.3% in November, the largest drop recorded [2] Economic Outlook - The focus is on ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026, with potential policy measures including "trade-in" programs and early fiscal allocations to stimulate consumption [2] - Anticipated policy actions may include interest rate cuts and adjustments to fiscal strategies to support economic recovery in the first quarter of 2026 [2] Market Performance - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with telecommunications and defense industries showing strong growth, while real estate and coal industries are experiencing significant declines [2] - The report indicates that the bond market is under pressure but may stabilize with upcoming policy changes and adjustments in government debt issuance [3]