国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251216

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment outlooks: - Strongly Bullish: Platinum (2), Palladium (2) [31] - Bullish: Polysilicon (1) [44] - Neutral: Gold (0), Silver (0), Copper (0), Zinc (0), Lead (0), Aluminum (0), Nickel (0), Stainless Steel (0), Carbonate Lithium (0), Industrial Silicon (0), Iron Ore (0), Rebar (0), Hot - Rolled Coil (0), Ferrosilicon (0), Manganese Silicon (0), Coke (0), Coking Coal (0), Logs (0), MEG (0), LLDPE (0), PP (0), Caustic Soda (0), Pulp (0), Methanol (0), Urea (0), Styrene (0), LPG (0), Propylene (0), PVC (0), Fuel Oil (0), Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (0), Container Freight Index (European Line) (0), Short - Fiber (0), Bottle Chip (0), Offset Printing Paper (0), Pure Benzene (0), Peanut (0) [6][12][15][19][25][33][38][41][45][47][52][57][61][72][82][84][87][92][100][105][109][116][117][125][128][130][139][142][147][183] - Bearish: Tin (-1), Alumina (-1), Synthetic Rubber (-1), PX (-1), PTA (-1), Soda Ash (-1), Palm Oil (-1), Soybean Oil (-1), Sugar (-1), Live Hogs (-1) [24][25][80][72][114][159][167][181] 2. Core Views The report provides daily updates on the fundamentals, market trends, and news of various commodities, offering short - term investment suggestions for each commodity: - Metals: For precious metals, gold saw an expected interest rate cut, while silver was in high - level adjustment. Base metals showed different trends, such as copper with an external - strong - internal - weak price oscillation, and zinc in short - term correction [6][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: In the energy and chemical sector, PX faced a situation where demand was seasonally weakening but supply remained tight, resulting in a high - level oscillation. PTA was also in a high - level oscillation, while MEG's planned unplanned load reduction improved the inventory accumulation pressure and provided short - term support at the bottom [65][72]. - Agricultural Products: Among agricultural products, palm oil was in a weak oscillation due to unclear production cuts, and soybean oil was struggling to stabilize as US soybeans were performing weakly [62]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: The price was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and macro - economic news. The trend intensity was neutral. The previous day's closing prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different changes, and trading volumes and open interests also fluctuated [6]. - Silver: It was in high - level adjustment. Similar to gold, its price, trading volume, and open interest data changed, and the trend intensity was neutral [6]. Base Metals - Copper: The price showed an external - strong - internal - weak oscillation. Domestic and international copper futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories had corresponding changes. News such as China's economic data and Chile's copper production and investment also influenced the market [12]. - Zinc: There was a short - term correction. Key data such as prices, trading volumes, and premiums changed, and the trend intensity was neutral [15]. Energy and Chemicals - PX: Demand was seasonally weakening, but supply remained tight, resulting in a high - level oscillation. There were changes in device operations, prices, and spreads. It was recommended to operate in the 6550 - 7000 range and take corresponding hedging measures [65][72]. - PTA: Although the cost - side PX supply - demand was tight, polyester was starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so there was limited upside space. It was recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range [72][73]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Due to unclear production cuts, it was in a weak oscillation. Export data showed a decline compared to the previous month [153]. - Soybean Oil: As US soybeans were performing weakly, soybean oil was struggling to stabilize. NOPA data showed an increase in US soybean oil inventory [152][157].