大宗商品涨多跌少，黑色、能化表现偏强

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas: The Fed's dovish stance, combined with a downward trend in the US economy and inflation, has led to increased enthusiasm for soft - landing trades. Assets such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and US equities have support. The nomination of the new Fed chair may cause a phase of smooth trading in liquidity - easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic: The tone of the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference is moderately positive. In 2026, macro - policies are expected to maintain a similar intensity to 2025, balancing long - term structural adjustment and short - term goals. External trade risks may influence policy rhythm [5]. - Asset Outlook: The current macro - environment favors precious metals and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes. Domestic equities are conservative during the year - end and policy - free period [5]. Summary by Directory Financial - Stock Index Futures: A large premium implies positive views, and the short - term trend is upward, but attention should be paid to liquidity deterioration [6]. - Stock Index Options: Adopt an offensive strategy when the price is low, and the short - term trend is upward, with the risk of continuous market liquidity shrinkage [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The adjustment pattern may continue in the short term, and the short - term trend is downward, affected by factors such as less - than - expected monetary easing [6]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Supported by economic downturn risks and interest - rate cut expectations, maintain a long - position strategy, and the short - term trend is upward, with attention to policy - expectation changes [6]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: With the price adjustment and news of short - term sailings suspension, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by geopolitical factors and spot freight rates [6]. Black Building Materials - Steel: Demand is picking up, but supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, with attention to special - bond issuance and steel exports [6]. - Iron Ore: Iron - water production is accelerating, and inventory - accumulation pressure is rising again. The short - term trend is volatile, affected by overseas mine production and domestic iron - water production [6]. - Coke: There is still an expectation of price increase, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by steel - mill production and coking costs [6]. - Coking Coal: Supported by the continuous increase in iron - water production, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by steel - mill production and coal - mine safety inspections [6]. - Ferrosilicon: With active resumption of production in Ningxia and rising cost support, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by raw - material costs and steel procurement [6]. - Manganese Silicon: Factory resumption is slow, and supply - demand has improved. The short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by cost prices and external quotes [6]. - Glass: With the decline in macro - sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by spot sales [6]. - Soda Ash: Supply - demand pressure is high, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is volatile, affected by soda - ash inventory [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Driven by policies, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by supply disruptions and domestic demand recovery [6]. - Alumina: With more ore - supply disruptions, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by ore - production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production [6]. - Aluminum: Driven by domestic macro - expectations, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by macro - risks and supply disruptions [6]. - Zinc: With the decline in macro - optimism, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by macro - risks and zinc - ore supply [6]. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by exports and waste - battery prices [6]. - Nickel: Driven by domestic macro - factors, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes [6]. - Stainless Steel: Boosted by macro - sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [6]. - Tin: With tight supply - demand and positive sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by demand recovery and supply increase [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Under the pressure of warehouse - receipt cancellation, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [6]. - Lithium Carbonate: With supply contraction at the end of the peak season, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by demand and supply disruptions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressure, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [8]. - LPG: There is a short - term differentiation between the domestic and overseas markets, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - Asphalt: The price is under pressure at 3000, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High Asian floating - storage offsets the decline in Russian fuel - oil exports, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by geopolitics and crude - oil prices [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Follows the weak trend of crude oil, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by crude - oil prices [8]. - Methanol: With sufficient supply inland and along the coast, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro - energy factors and overseas production suspension [8]. - Urea: The progress of off - season storage has slowed down, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by coal prices and inventory de - stocking [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: Market pessimism leads to inventory accumulation, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by coal and oil prices and port inventory [8]. - PX: Supported by tight PTA spot supply, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - PTA: Spot circulation is tight, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations and downstream polyester load [8]. - Short - Fiber: Affected by ethylene - glycol costs, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by downstream yarn - mill purchasing and seasonality [8]. - Bottle Chip: Affected by the differentiation of upstream polyester raw - material costs, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - cut targets and new - device commissioning [8]. - Propylene: With a strong spot market and expected PDH production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic macro - factors [8]. - PP: Boosted by expected PDH production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [8]. - Plastic: With limited raw - material and maintenance support, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [8]. - Styrene: Affected by repeated maintenance news, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - PVC: With limited production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - Caustic Soda: Without upstream production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by market sentiment and demand [8]. Agriculture - Natural Rubber: The price fluctuates widely without strong drivers, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - area weather and raw - material prices [8]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market sentiment is positive, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations [8]. - Cotton: The short - term trend is volatile, affected by production and demand [8]. - Sugar: There is pressure at the upper level and short - term support at the lower level, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by imports and Northern - Hemisphere production [8]. - Pulp: Driven by positive news, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US - dollar quotes [8]. - Offset Paper: There are no obvious contradictions, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - sales and paper - mill operations [8]. - Log: With a low valuation, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [8].