国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251216

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on December 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Views - Palm oil:减产未明确，偏弱震荡运行 [2] - Soybean oil:美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 [2] - Soybean meal:美豆小幅收跌，连粕或震荡 [2] - Soybean:现货稳中偏强，盘面调整震荡 [2] - Corn:关注现货 [2] - Sugar:偏弱运行 [2] - Cotton:震荡偏强关注下游需求20251216 [2] - Eggs:震荡调整 [2] - Hogs:冬至需求预期落地，仓单增量 [2] - Peanuts:关注油厂收购 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of palm oil futures had a decline, with a -0.58% drop in the day - session and -1.43% at night. The trading volume decreased by 32,641 hands, and the open interest decreased by 7,815 hands. The spot price in Guangdong dropped by 80 yuan/ton. [5] - News: AmSpec and ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.37% and 15.89% respectively compared to the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October. [6][8] Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of soybean oil futures was 8,558 yuan/ton in the day - session with a -0.22% drop and 8,436 yuan/ton at night with a -3.72% drop. The trading volume increased by 15,699 hands, and the open interest decreased by 21,110 hands. The spot price in Guangdong dropped by 50 yuan/ton. [5] - News: NOPA data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November decreased by 5.1% compared to October but increased by 11.8% compared to the same period in 2024. The soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies reached a seven - month high. USDA reported private exporters' sales of 13.6 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 delivery. [9][10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: For DCE soybean 2601, the day - session closing price was 4,130 yuan/ton with a -0.51% drop, and 4,084 yuan/ton at night with a -1.40% drop. For DCE soybean meal 2605, the day - session closing price was 2,758 yuan/ton with a -0.54% drop, and 2,748 yuan/ton at night with a -0.51% drop. [13] - News: On December 15, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined due to concerns about US soybean exports and the expected harvest in Brazil. Private exporters reported sales of 13.6 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/2026. NOPA's November soybean crushing volume decreased by 5.1% from October but increased by 11.83% from the same period last year. [13][15] Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2601 was 2,228 yuan/ton in the day - session with a -0.67% drop and 2,226 yuan/ton at night with a -0.09% drop. The trading volume of C2601 decreased by 10,638 hands, and the open interest decreased by 47,264 hands. [17] - News: The northern corn bulk shipping collection price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain collection price remained flat. The price in Guangdong Shekou was stable, and the container price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were relatively stable, and North China prices were stable with a slight increase. [18] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 14.93 cents/pound with a -0.17 change. The mainstream spot price was 5,370 yuan/ton with a -10 change. The futures main contract price was 5,207 yuan/ton with a -7 change. [20] - News: As of December 15, the 25/26 sugar - making season in India had a 28.3% increase in sugar production year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year, and exports in November decreased by 9 tons year - on - year. China's sugar imports in October increased by 21 tons, and imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased by 11 tons. [20] Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,990 yuan/ton in the day - session with a 1.01% increase and 14,020 yuan/ton at night with a 0.21% increase. The trading volume increased by 154,405 hands, and the open interest increased by 13,531 hands. [25] - News: Cotton spot trading volume increased significantly. Cotton yarn prices had local fluctuations, with the overall off - season atmosphere remaining strong. ICE cotton futures had a small increase but then declined due to poor export data. [26] Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of eggs 2601 was 3,122 yuan/500 kilograms with a 1.23% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 69,982 hands, and the open interest decreased by 4,363 hands. [29] Hogs - Fundamentals: The Henan spot price was 11,480 yuan/ton with a 50 increase. The futures prices of hogs 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 11,400 yuan/ton, 11,305 yuan/ton, and 11,905 yuan/ton respectively. [32] - News: Multiple companies registered hog futures warehouse receipts in December, including Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, etc. [33] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The closing price of PK601 was 8,090 yuan/ton with a -0.02% drop, and the trading volume decreased by 5,391 hands, and the open interest decreased by 6,720 hands. [36] - News: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions had different trends. In Henan, prices were basically stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were stable with a slight decline; in Shandong, prices were basically stable. [37]