山金期货黑色板块日报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with high inventory pressure. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market. For steel, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and consider reducing or closing positions if a new downward trend forms. Do not short at the current position [2]. - For iron ore, demand is expected to decline as steel production decreases with the arrival of the off - season, and supply is at a high level with rising port inventories. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading, and approach it with a range - bound mindset without chasing highs or lows [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand: Last week, the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is still significantly higher than the historical average, while the de - stocking pressure for threaded rods is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, indicating a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the passing of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. The sharp drop in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel is still in a range - bound trend. After a significant gap - down opening, it rebounded but has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions lightly. If the market continues to fall and forms a new downward trend, consider reducing or closing positions. Do not short at the current position [2]. - Data Summary: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as most spot prices, have declined compared to last week. The blast furnace operating rate, average daily hot metal output, and the proportion of profitable steel mills have all decreased. The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has declined, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products has decreased, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils in steel mills has increased. The apparent demand has declined, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has decreased [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Demand: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts are putting pressure on raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is suppressing futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, putting relatively greater pressure on iron ore [5]. - Technical Analysis: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range trading pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading. Approach it with a range - bound mindset and avoid chasing highs or lows [5]. - Data Summary: The settlement prices of most iron ore contracts and spot prices have declined compared to last week. The shipment volume from Australia has increased, while that from Brazil has decreased. The arrival volume at northern ports has decreased, the average daily port clearance volume has decreased slightly, and the total port inventory has increased. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has decreased [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In early December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1869 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 186.9 million tons (a 2.8% increase in daily output month - on - month); 1714 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 171.4 million tons (a 3.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month); and 1829 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 182.9 million tons (a 12.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2928.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.9 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2723.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 242.9 million tons; and at six northern ports, it was 1358.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.8 million tons [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3592.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 224.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2965.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 2052.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 85.2 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1702.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113.9 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 912.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 225.0 million tons [7].