统计局 2025 年 1-11 月房地产数据点评：销售量价持续下行，投融资指标加速下跌

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][4] Core Insights - The sales volume and price in the real estate sector continue to decline, with investment and financing indicators accelerating downward [4][5] - The sales revenue for new commercial housing has reached a historical low, with a year-on-year decline of 11.1% for the first 11 months of 2025 [6] - The trend of "price for volume" is evident, and the outlook for housing prices remains pessimistic [5][20] - Real estate development investment and funds available to real estate companies are both experiencing accelerated declines [5][35] - New construction remains at a low level, while completion rates, as a lagging indicator, show a confirmed downward trend [5][55] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first 11 months of 2025, the total sales revenue of new commercial housing was 75,130 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%, with the decline rate expanding by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][6] - The sales area for new commercial housing was 78,702 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with a decline rate increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][6] - November 2025 saw a single-month sales revenue decline of 25.1% year-on-year, marking the lowest level compared to the same period in history [6] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in the first 11 months of 2025 was 9,546 yuan per square meter, down 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [20] - In November 2025, the average selling price dropped to 9,097 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [20] Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment totaled 78,591 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, with the decline rate expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [35] - Funds available to real estate companies were 85,145 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [35] Construction Activity - The new construction area for the first 11 months of 2025 was 53,457 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [55] - The completion area was 39,454 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that, despite the current downturn in the real estate fundamentals, there may be opportunities for policy-driven trading strategies. It recommends continuing to build positions at the bottom, specifically mentioning China Jinmao and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group as potential stocks to consider [5][69]