能源化工日报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export - price support willingness [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improved demand and expected seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. There is support from export policies and costs, and it's recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profits, but high supply and weak domestic demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It's possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. - For polyethylene, the price of crude oil may have bottomed out, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is expected to improve but the inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 0.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.09% decline, at 436.50 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels, diesel increased by 0.34 million barrels, fuel oil increased by 0.69 million barrels, naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels, and aviation kerosene increased by 0.74 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 1.22 million barrels [2]. - Strategy View: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, and Inner Mongolia decreased, while those in Henan and Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2074 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was 32 yuan [5]. - Strategy View: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there is still pressure in the future. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shanxi decreased, while those in Shandong and Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1629 yuan/ton, with a basis of 61 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy View: The market is oscillating higher. With improved demand and expected seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. There is support from export policies and costs, and it's recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10]. Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices oscillated. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. As of December 12, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, and that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased [11]. - Strategy View: A neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract rose 95 yuan to 4315 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 increased by 80 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream operating rate was 48.9%, a 0.2% decline. Factory inventory increased by 1.8 tons, and social inventory remained unchanged [14]. - Strategy View: The industry has low comprehensive profits, but high supply and weak domestic demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price rose. Upstream operating rate decreased, and Jiangsu port inventory increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased [18]. - Strategy View: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It's possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The main futures contract rose 71 yuan/ton to 6557 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. Upstream operating rate decreased slightly. Production enterprise inventory increased, and trader inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [21]. - Strategy View: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The main futures contract rose 125 yuan/ton to 6254 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. Upstream operating rate increased. Production enterprise and trader inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [24]. - Strategy View: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - Market Information: The PX01 contract rose 24 yuan to 6810 yuan. PX CFR rose 2 dollars. China's PX load decreased slightly, and Asia's increased slightly. Some overseas devices restarted, and some were under maintenance. PTA load remained unchanged, and some devices were under maintenance. Import volume decreased year - on - year, and inventory increased month - on - month [27]. - Strategy View: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [28]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract rose 14 yuan to 4628 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 10 yuan. PTA load remained unchanged, and some devices were under maintenance. The downstream load decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly. The spot and futures processing fees decreased [29]. - Strategy View: The supply is expected to increase and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [31]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract rose 24 yuan to 3651 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 43 yuan. The supply - side load decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance. The downstream load decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons [32]. - Strategy View: The supply is expected to improve but the inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [33].