集运日报：节前出货带动运价小幅上涨，盘面震荡上行，符合日报预期，已建议全部止盈。-20251216

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints -节前 shipping volume led to a slight increase in freight rates, and the market oscillated upward, meeting the daily report's expectations. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, Middle - East situations, and spot freight rates [1][3]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Freight Rate Index - On December 15, SCFIS (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8% [2]. - On December 12, NCFI (composite index) was 1060.86 points, up 10.23%; NCFI (European route) was 1064.13 points, up 9.98%; NCFI (US West route) was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% [2]. - On December 12, SCFI was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points; SCFI (European route) was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86%; SCFI (US West route) was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% [2]. - On December 12, CCFI (composite index) was 1118.07 points, up 0.3%; CCFI (European route) was 1470.55 points, up 1.6%; CCFI (US West route) was 798.95 points, down 2.3% [2]. b. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMW was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service industry PMM was 53.1, better than expected [2]. - The Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, expected - 7, previous value - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global services PMI was 55, expected 54.6, previous value 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [3]. c. Market Conditions - On December 15, the main contract 2602 closed at 1746.0, up 3.30%, with a trading volume of 28,300 lots and an open interest of 33,100 lots, an increase of 1401 lots from the previous day [3]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounded after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slowed down. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the main contract with a light position, and all positions were advised to take profit. No additional positions were recommended, and no positions should be held against losses. Stop - losses should be set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract was advised to take profit when reaching a high, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. e. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4].