金融期货早班车-20251216

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 16, 2025 [1] - Report issuer: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Market Performance A-share Market - On December 15, the four major A-share indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.1% to 13112.09 points, the ChiNext Index declined 1.77% to 3137.8 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 2.22% to 1318.91 points. Market turnover was 1.7944 trillion yuan, a decrease of 324.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-bank finance (+1.59%), commerce and trade retail (+1.49%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.24%) led the gains, while electronics (-2.42%), communication (-1.89%), and media (-1.63%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2313/176/2965 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -16.8 billion, -19.2 billion, 3.8 billion, and 32.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -14 billion, -13.1 billion, +16.2 billion, and +10.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 73.88, 53.16, 24.26, and 8.47 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -10.99%, -8.12%, -5.79%, and -3.08% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 36%, 30%, 20%, and 26% respectively [3]. Bond Futures - On December 15, interest - rate bonds performed weakly. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF dropped 0.03%, T declined 0.12%, and TL decreased 0.99% [3]. Short - term Capital Market - In open - market operations, the central bank injected 130.9 billion yuan and withdrew 122.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 8.6 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. Bond Futures - In the medium - to - long term, with the upward shift of risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. Group 4: Market Data Tables Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows detailed data such as the code, name, change percentage, current price, trading volume, and basis of various stock index futures and spot products [6]. Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table presents data including the code, name, change percentage, current price, trading volume, and net basis of various bond futures and spot products [8]. Short - term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the current price, previous price, price one week ago, and price one month ago of SHIBOR overnight [11]. Group 5: Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, and social activities is currently lower than in previous periods, and further observation is needed [11].