GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-16 01:24Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November, domestic heavy truck sales reached 113,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 65% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The cumulative sales from January to November reached 1.041 million units, up 27% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in heavy truck sales due to the economic recovery and the introduction of the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, projecting sales of 1.117 million units for 2025, a 24% increase year-on-year [4]. - The report emphasizes the growing penetration of new energy heavy trucks, expecting the penetration rate to reach 18% by 2025, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November, the sales structure of heavy trucks showed that semi-trailer trucks accounted for 51.7%, cargo trucks for 27.0%, and non-complete vehicles for 21.2%. The sales of semi-trailer trucks reached 62,000 units, up 85% year-on-year, while heavy cargo truck sales were 29,000 units, up 61% year-on-year [4]. - The report notes that the sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in November were 19,000 units, a significant increase of 154% year-on-year, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 12% [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the heavy truck market's high prosperity in November is attributed to the tail effect of the "old-for-new" policy and the continuation of the traditional peak season for heavy trucks [4]. - The report also highlights that the penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 17% in November, with expectations for further growth due to the economic advantages of natural gas vehicles for high-mileage operations [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, CIMC Vehicles, Foton Motor, and FAW Jiefang, based on their growth potential and market positioning [4].