LLDPE：上方空间有限，基差再度转弱

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report LLDPE has limited upside potential, and the basis has weakened again. The supply and demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand should be noted in the medium term [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2601 on the previous day was 6557, with a daily increase of 1.09%, trading volume of 619,069, and an open - interest change of 9,111. The 01 - contract basis was - 57 (previous day: 4), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 35 (previous day: - 10) [1]. - Spot Prices: The previous day's spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6500, 6650, and 6500 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of +10, +50, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the day before [1]. Spot News As the position - limit approaches, the futures market rebounds, and coal - chemical prices rise slightly. However, some ex - factory prices of petrochemical and oil companies are lowered, traders lack confidence, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is poor under weakening demand. The basis weakens again, and the destocking of warehouse receipts stops. The offering volume from the Middle East and the US decreases, and the prices are at a premium to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the US are delayed, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 2026 [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Raw Materials and Supply - demand: Crude oil prices fluctuate, the monomer segment is weakly stable, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE market oscillates at a low level. The demand for downstream agricultural films weakens, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreases slightly, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [2].