Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 15, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.10% to 13112.09 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.77% to 3137.80 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1773.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 318.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.06, a decrease of 28.89 from the previous day [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: The weighted index of coke rebounded strongly, closing at 1589.2, up 14.3 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal rebounded from oversold levels, closing at 1040.0 yuan, up 31.3 from the previous day [2][3] 2. Futures Market Analysis Coking Coal and Coke - Price Influencing Factors: Large steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of price cuts was basically completed. The spot market sentiment stabilized, but the steel mills' procurement willingness did not recover. Recently, coke enterprises in the northern main production areas received environmental protection restrictions, and the production load of coke ovens is expected to decline. The daily output of molten iron decreased seasonally, and the start - up of coke enterprises was restricted by environmental protection, so the rigid demand for coking coal gradually declined. The enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises for raw material inventory was not high, and the pit - mouth transactions were still sluggish. The winter storage had not started, but the daily output of raw coal in mines was also declining, so the supply pressure did not increase significantly [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Market Trend: Although the US sugar rebounded last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract did not follow. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot price and short - selling pressure, the contract oscillated and declined on Monday and in the night session. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that the sugarcane planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 9.39843 million hectares, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month's estimate and an increase of 1.9% from the previous year. The sugarcane output was estimated to be 697.015577 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month's estimate and a decrease of 1.4% from the previous year [4] Rubber - Market Influencing Factors: The Thai Rubber Authority announced an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote rubber price stability measures. The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November 2025 was 1.57, above the warning line. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08% from the previous period. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber oscillated on Monday, and the varieties rose and fell. In the night session, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher [4] Palm Oil - Market Performance: On December 15, palm oil continued last week's weak consolidation. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji star, with the highest price of 8550, the lowest price of 8442, and the closing price of 8492, a decrease of 0.70% from the previous day. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from December 1 - 15 was 587,657 tons, a decrease of 16.37% from the same period last month [6] Soybean Meal - International Market: Due to concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand and the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, the CBOT soybeans were weak on Monday. Brazilian soybeans have basically completed sowing and entered the growing season, and the weather is generally favorable for crop growth. The early - maturing soybeans in Brazil will enter the harvest period in mid - January. Multiple institutions estimate that its output will still be in the historical high range of over 175 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good growth, and the soil moisture is suitable. The US Department of Agriculture estimated the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the December supply - demand report to be 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November [6] - Domestic Market: On December 15, the main contract M2605 closed at 2752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and oil mills maintain a high crushing rate, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. However, the news of the extended customs clearance time of imported soybeans has fermented, and feed and breeding enterprises need to stock up in advance for the upcoming peak demand season, which eases the supply pressure of soybean meal and boosts the spot price. The high - yield prospect of Brazilian soybeans weakens the export demand of US soybeans, and the domestic supply pressure is concentrated on the far - month contracts. Affected by the US soybean market hitting a 7 - week low, the domestic soybean meal futures market was under pressure and declined [6] Live Pigs - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%. The enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter is high. Large - scale pig enterprises have the expectation of increasing sales at the end of the year to complete the annual plan. The slaughter willingness of retail farmers and secondary fattening households has also increased. The market supply of live pigs is continuously abundant, which directly and continuously suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the pressure of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year still exists, and the pattern of loose supply is difficult to improve quickly. The domestic temperature has gradually decreased, which has promoted the marginal improvement of pork consumption. The traditional pickling cycle in the southwest region has officially started, and the demand for pickled pork and sausage has increased. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly compared with the previous period, providing certain demand support. However, the current consumption recovery is still relatively mild, and there has not been a large - scale concentrated procurement phenomenon, which is difficult to form the core driving force for price increase. The live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [6] Shanghai Copper - Market Performance: The main contract 2601 of Shanghai copper closed at 92,490 yuan/ton. The main continuous contract opened at 93,500 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 94,360 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 90,750 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 92,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1680 yuan from the previous settlement price. The trading volume of the main contract increased to 228,700 lots, and the open interest increased by 31,200 lots to 219,800 lots. The trading volume of the main continuous contract was 183,400 lots, and the open interest was 165,800 lots. Due to the cooling of the macro - market preference, the wavering of the Fed's policy, and the decline of global stock markets, the concern spread to the metal market and dragged down the copper price. On the other hand, December 15 was the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2512 contract, and the 2025 long - term contracts were basically completed. The trade activity declined, and the downstream procurement was weak due to the high copper price, which further affected the trend of Shanghai copper [8] Iron Ore - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2605 of iron ore oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.92% and a closing price of 753 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased month - on - month, the arrival volume continued to decline month - on - month, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand decreased in the off - season, the decline of molten iron output further expanded, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2602 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.54% and a closing price of 2963 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the northern region was flat, and the terminal demand in the southern region was weak. It was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [8] Logs - Market Performance: The log 2601 contract opened at 753.5 on Monday, with the lowest price of 751, the highest price of 765, and closed at 753.5, with a daily reduction of 2234 lots. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9] Cotton - Market Performance: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,020 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday. The cotton inventory increased by 57 lots from the previous trading day. The area control target for the target price of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season was set at about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu or more than 10% from the actual sown area of 41 - 43 million mu in 2025. Xinjiang's cotton planting will undergo a strong structural adjustment [9] Steel - Market Performance: On December 15, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3233 yuan/ton. After the central important meeting, multiple departments have intensively deployed key tasks for 2026, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize through multiple measures and comprehensively rectifying "involution - style" competition. Incremental policies will be introduced and implemented according to the situation next year. The macro - policy still has room for action, which helps to stabilize market sentiment. The coking coal futures rebounded sharply on Monday, providing certain support for steel prices from the cost side. However, the pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market is gradually increasing. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. In the short term, steel prices will be adjusted narrowly [9] Alumina - Market Performance: On December 15, ao2601 closed at 2537 yuan/ton. After the futures price fell below 2500 yuan/ton, it rebounded quickly, and a large number of short - position funds took profits. The current futures price has fallen below the industry's average cash cost line, and the inventory of the entire industrial chain has climbed to a historical peak. Some production enterprises are carrying out maintenance, and some downstream enterprises said they will increase raw material reserves at an appropriate time. Against the background of industry production losses, high - cost production capacity is gradually withdrawing [10] Shanghai Aluminum - Market Performance: On December 15, al2602 closed at 21,920 yuan/ton. Although the macro - level is full of positive atmosphere, it cannot offset the suppression of the fundamentals and capital side in the short term. Domestically, the central economic work conference made it clear that the proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented next year. Overseas, due to the unclear inflation trend and the strength of the labor market, the market faces uncertainty about the direction of the US monetary policy next year. In terms of supply, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 44.39 million tons, and the operating capacity has increased slightly under high profits, with little overall change. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional consumption off - season, the consumption resilience of industries such as automobiles, electricity, and electronics is strong, and there has been no over - seasonal weakening. The proportion of molten aluminum has also remained high [10]
国新国证期货早报-20251216
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-12-16 01:51