工业硅：逢高做空为主，多晶硅：报价抬升

Report Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides detailed fundamental data for industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot premiums and discounts, prices, profits, and inventory levels. It also mentions a macro and industry news item about the Yunnan electricity price bidding results [2]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: Si2605 closing price is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan from T - 1, 325 yuan from T - 5, and 795 yuan from T - 22. PS2605 closing price is 58,030 yuan/ton, up 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - Basis and Spot Premiums/Discounts: Industrial silicon spot premiums are positive for different grades, while polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled material) is - 6030 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - Prices and Profits: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 100 yuan from T - 22. Silicon plant profits are negative for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and 0.7 yuan from T - 22. [2] - Inventory: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 56.1 million tons, with an increase of 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 1.5 million tons from T - 22. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 29.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and 2.6 million tons from T - 22. [2] - Raw Material Costs: The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with most remaining stable. [2] - Polysilicon - related Products: The prices of polysilicon - N - type recycled material, trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given, along with their price changes over different time periods. [2] - Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy: The price of DMC is 13600 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is 1788 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 21600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from T - 1. [2] Macro and Industry News - Kunming Power Exchange Center announced the Yunnan electricity price bidding results for 2026. 1295 out of 1323 new - energy projects won the bid, with the clearing mechanism price for photovoltaic projects at 0.329 yuan/kWh and for wind power projects at 0.335 yuan/kWh. [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [4]