国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including market trends, fundamental data, and trading suggestions for each product [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of considering factors such as supply - demand balance, cost, and market sentiment when making investment decisions in the futures market. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - Market Trends: PX is in a high - level volatile market with seasonal weakening demand but tight supply; PTA is in a high - level volatile market; MEG has short - term support below due to unplanned production cuts improving inventory accumulation pressure [2][4]. - Fundamental Data: PX主力昨日收盘价6784, up 0.38%; PTA主力4696, up 0.47%; MEG主力3651, up 0.66%. PX CFR China was at 832.67 dollars/ton yesterday, up 2 dollars compared to the previous day [5]. - Suggestions: For PX, avoid chasing high prices and operate in the range of 6550 - 7000. Exit the 5 - 9 positive spread and the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA/BZ. For PTA, operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 and take similar exit actions. For MEG, do not chase short on the 01 contract [11][12]. 3.2 Rubber - Market Trends: Rubber is in a volatile operation [2][14]. - Fundamental Data: The rubber主力05合约日盘收盘价 was 15,200 yuan/ton yesterday, down 30 yuan; the night - time closing price was 15,230 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume increased by 117,063 hands [14]. - Industry News: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 49.89 million tons, a 2.08% increase from the previous period [15]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Market Trends: The oscillation center of synthetic rubber is moving up [2][17]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the butadiene rubber主力02 contract was 10,720 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,953 hands [17]. - Industry News: As of December 10, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,000 tons, a 1.18% decrease from the previous period. The butadiene inventory in East China ports decreased by 5,200 tons [18][20]. 3.4 LLDPE - Market Trends: The upside space of LLDPE is limited, and the basis has weakened again [2][21]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of L2601 was 6557, up 1.09%. The 01 - contract basis was - 57, compared to 4 the previous day [21]. - Market Situation: The raw material crude oil price is oscillating, the monomer segment is weakly stable, and the downstream demand is weakening. The supply pressure in the medium - term needs attention [22]. 3.5 PP - Market Trends: The trading volume of PP has improved periodically, but the basis is still weak [2][23]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, up 2.04%. The 01 - contract basis was - 154, compared to - 49 the previous day [23]. - Market Situation: The cost - end support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Market Trends: Caustic soda still faces pressure in the later stage [26]. - Fundamental Data: The futures price of the 01 contract was 2163, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 710, and the basis was 56 [27]. - Market Situation: Although the futures price rebounded on Friday night, the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. The demand is weak, and there is pressure to reduce inventory by lowering prices before the Spring Festival [28]. 3.7 Pulp - Market Trends: Pulp is in a wide - range volatile state [2][31]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the pulp主力05 contract was 5572 yuan/ton yesterday, up 38 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 67,332 hands [33]. - Industry News: The futures market was narrowly volatile, the spot price was stable, and the actual market transactions were limited. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak [34]. 3.8 Glass - Market Trends: The price of glass raw sheets is stable [2][38]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of FG601 was 950, up 0.11%. The 01 - contract basis was 120, compared to 135 the previous day [37]. - Market Situation: The price of float glass fluctuated, and the trading atmosphere in most regions was average. The impact of snowfall in the north affected shipments [37]. 3.9 Methanol - Market Trends: Methanol is in short - term volatile operation [2][39]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the methanol主力05 contract was 2124 yuan/ton yesterday, up 57 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 354,221 hands [40]. - Market Situation: The methanol port inventory has been decreasing, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The macro - environment provides some support [42]. 3.10 Urea - Market Trends: Urea is under oscillating pressure [2][44]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the urea主力01 contract was 1629 yuan/ton yesterday, up 4 yuan. The trading volume increased by 28,598 hands [45]. - Market Situation: The short - term driving force is neutral, the spot trading has weakened, and the futures price is expected to be under oscillating pressure. The fundamentals have improved, but the driving force needs further observation [46][47]. 3.11 Styrene - Market Trends: Styrene is in short - term oscillation [2][48]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of styrene2512 was 6491, down 9; styrene2601 was 6442, down 63 [48]. - Market Situation: The pure benzene market is oscillating, the downstream of styrene is in a high - inventory and medium - profit pattern, and the overall supply pressure is not large [49]. 3.12 Soda Ash - Market Trends: The spot market of soda ash has little change [2][51]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of SA2601 was 1123, up 1.63%. The 01 - contract basis was 77, compared to 107 the previous day [52]. - Market Situation: The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is flat, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high [52]. 3.13 LPG and Propylene - Market Trends: LPG is in short - term oscillation with a downward trend; propylene is in short - term narrow - range adjustment [2][55][56]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of PG2601 was 4181, up 2.73%; PL2601 was 5949, down 0.20% [56]. - Market Situation: The price of CP paper goods decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [61][62]. 3.14 PVC - Market Trends: PVC is in low - level oscillation [2][66]. - Fundamental Data: The futures price of the 01 contract was 4315, the spot price in East China was 4330, and the basis was 15 [64]. - Market Situation: The spot price of PVC increased slightly. Although the futures price rebounded, the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [64][65]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Trends: The short - term trend of fuel oil has weakened, and the short - term volatility has increased; a retracement has occurred in low - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has narrowed [2][67]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of FU2601 was 2417 yuan/ton, up 2.07%; LU2601 was 2988 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [67]. - Market Situation: The trading volume and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and the price spreads have also fluctuated [67]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Trends: The container shipping index (European line) is in an oscillating market [2][69]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of EC2512 was 1649.8, down 0.09%; EC2602 was 1746.0, up 3.30% [69]. - Market Situation: The freight rates of European and US - West routes have changed, and the shipping prices of different carriers vary [69]. 3.17 Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - Market Trends: Short - fiber and bottle chips are in short - term low - level oscillation with medium - term pressure [2][78]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of short - fiber2601 was 6110, up 22; bottle chips2601 was 5552, up 22 [78]. - Market Situation: The short - fiber futures rose and then fell, and the sales improved; the price of bottle chips factories was mostly stable, and the market transactions were average [78][79]. 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - Market Trends: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for offset printing paper [2][81]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of OP2602.SHF was 3994, and the 2 - 3 spread was - 16 [81]. - Market Situation: The price of double - offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets was stable, the market demand was weak, and the trading atmosphere was general [82][84]. 3.19 Pure Benzene - Market Trends: Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation [2][86]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of BZ2603 was 5448, up 28. The pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 260,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [86]. - Market Situation: The pure benzene inventory in ports has increased, the trading volume in Shandong has decreased, and the price has declined slightly [87].