2025年12月16日：期货市场交易指引-20251216

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Stocks are expected to have a medium - to long - term upward trend, with a short - term outlook of volatile operation; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1][7][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper should be reduced on rallies and replenished when the price stabilizes at a low level; aluminum requires more observation; nickel is recommended to be observed or shorted on rallies; tin is for range trading; silver should be held in long positions with caution in opening new positions; gold is for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [1][10][12][17]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash are recommended for temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][21][22][23]. - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement; PTA is expected to move upward in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][30][32][33]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies for near - term contracts and bullish cautiously for far - term contracts; eggs have limited upside potential; corn should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading, with a stronger view for near - term contracts and a weaker view for far - term contracts; oils are recommended to be shorted with caution [1][34][37][40]. Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors. For example, the macro - financial market is affected by central bank policies and economic data; the black building materials market is affected by supply - demand relationships in the industry; the non - ferrous metals market is affected by global economic trends and supply - demand in the mining industry; the energy and chemicals market is affected by raw material prices and downstream demand; the cotton and textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption; the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by breeding cycles and supply - demand in the food market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stocks: Influenced by factors such as Fed policies, domestic economic data, and technological developments, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a medium - to long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Bonds: Affected by central bank policies and regulatory measures, the market is expected to trade sideways. The key lies in the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance from important meetings [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: In a game between bearish realities and marginal support, it is recommended for short - term trading [7]. - Rebar: With low valuation and weak drivers, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement and suitable for range trading [7]. - Glass: With high inventory, weak demand, and increasing supply expectations, it is expected to be in a low - level weak movement before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supported by macro - easing expectations and long - term ore shortages, but with short - term over - rise risks, it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish when the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. - Aluminum: With factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity adjustments, and weakening demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - Nickel: With an expected increase in supply and an oversupply pattern, it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15]. - Tin: With tight supply and weak downstream consumption, it is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [17]. - Silver and Gold: Affected by Fed policies and economic data, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement. Silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in opening new positions, and gold is for range trading [17][19]. - Lithium Carbonate: With supply disruptions and strong demand, it is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement, and attention should be paid to mine developments [19]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high supply, weak demand, and low valuation, it is expected to be in a low - level sideways movement and suitable for range trading [21]. - Caustic Soda: With high inventory and uncertain supply - demand changes, it is recommended for temporary observation [22]. - Styrene: Affected by factors such as oil blending and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - Rubber: Affected by supply shortages and inventory changes, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - Urea: With sufficient supply and stable demand and supply, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [25]. - Methanol: With supply recovery, high - level but fluctuating downstream demand, and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [26]. - Polyolefins: With strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. PE is expected to be in a range - bound movement, and PP is expected to be in a relatively weak movement [28]. - Soda Ash: With supply overcapacity and cost support, it is recommended for temporary observation [30]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic sales, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [30]. - PTA: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [32]. - Apples and Jujubes: With weak demand and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [32][33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: With short - term supply pressure and long - term capacity adjustment, near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and far - term contracts are bullish cautiously [34]. - Eggs: With sufficient supply and short - term balanced supply - demand, the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to long - term capacity changes [37]. - Corn: With short - term selling pressure and long - term demand recovery, it should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies [40]. - Soybean Meal: With different trends for near - and far - term contracts, it is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices for the December - January basis [40]. - Oils: Affected by reports and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. It is recommended to be shorted with caution for soybean and palm oils [47].