11月宏观数据分析：11月经济数据继续走弱，内需不足是主要制约

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the macro - economic data continued to decline, and the recovery momentum remained weak. The manufacturing PMI rebounded but was still below the boom - bust line. Industrial production, consumption, and fixed - asset investment growth rates all continued to weaken, and the real estate market was still in a downward trend. Domestic effective demand was insufficient, and the economy faced many challenges [3]. - The implementation of more proactive macro - policies is required to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, promoting both qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy. "Expanding domestic demand and anti - involution" will be long - term and important policy measures [3]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment is continuously improving. Despite the twists and turns, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 are expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the boom - bust line. Large - scale enterprise PMI decreased, while medium and small - scale enterprise PMIs increased [4]. - Among the 5 classification indexes of manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, the production index was at the critical point, and the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% in November, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry business activity index increased, while the service industry business activity index decreased [7]. 2. CPI and PPI - In November 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The core inflation continued to improve [8][10]. - The anti - involution policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI is in an upward - repair trend. The PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12]. 3. Import and Export - In November, China's total import and export value was 549.03 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth of 4.3%. Exports were 330.35 billion US dollars, up 5.9% year - on - year, and imports were 218.67 billion US dollars, up 1.9% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of 111.68 billion US dollars [13]. - Exports to the EU rebounded significantly, while exports to the US were gradually replaced by those to ASEAN. China's exports have shown strong resilience, and the real risk for foreign trade lies in the potential decline in global demand [16]. 4. Credit and Money Supply - At the end of November 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5%. The growth rates of both M1 and M2 declined, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [18][23]. - Resident and enterprise credit demand was weak. Resident short - term and long - term loans decreased significantly, and enterprise short - and long - term loans were at a low level, with a significant increase in bill financing [19][21]. 5. Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment - In November, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate continued to decline, especially in sectors such as home appliances, furniture, and automobiles [24][26]. - From January to November, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with declines in private fixed - asset investment, real estate development investment, and infrastructure investment [28]. 6. Real Estate Market - From January to November, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% and 11.1% year - on - year respectively, and the decline accelerated in November. Real estate new construction, construction, and completion also decreased [31][33]. - The real estate market is in the process of bottoming out and transforming. Although there are fluctuations, the year - on - year decline in sales and prices is narrowing, and the de - stocking effect is emerging. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38].