供需宽松格局延续，矿价重心承压下移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global iron ore demand growth in 2026 is expected to remain moderate. The overseas market shows some resilience, but China's demand outlook is weak due to insufficient growth momentum in domestic pig iron production and slow recovery of steel demand in the real - estate sector [3][18][50]. - The global iron ore production in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.3%. The increments mainly come from the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea, production recovery and expansion of major mines in Australia and Brazil [3][21][50]. - In 2026, the global iron ore market is expected to maintain a loose supply - demand pattern. With weak demand and continuous supply growth, the iron ore price is under pressure, and its center may continue to decline, with a reference range of 600 - 880 yuan/ton [3][51]. 3. Section - by - section Summaries 3.1. Market Review - In early 2025, iron ore prices rose strongly. From January to February, the main contract reached the annual high of 844 yuan/ton, driven by macro - policy expectations, seasonal reduction of overseas ore shipments, and demand support from blast furnace复产 after the Spring Festival [7]. - In the second quarter, the market weakened significantly. In March, the slow recovery of terminal demand, US steel tariffs, and anti - dumping in Southeast Asia increased steel export pressure. In April, the "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US caused market panic, leading to a sharp decline in iron ore prices [7]. - In July, there was a strong reversal. The "anti - involution" policy raised expectations of coking coal contraction, and the high - level daily iron - water production provided strong support. However, the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits foreshadowed subsequent price drops [7]. - Since August, iron ore has been oscillating at a high level with a gradually downward center. After the National Day holiday, demand weakened, iron - water production decreased, and supply increased, leading to rising port inventories and weakening prices [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Domestic Iron Ore Demand Better than the Same Period - China's steel production was generally at a high level, with iron - water production being high in the first half and low in the second half. As of November, the average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills was about 238 tons/day, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The blast furnace operating rate was in the 80% - 85% range [10]. - Long - product output declined more significantly due to the real - estate industry, while plate output decreased less due to support from the automotive, shipbuilding, and manufacturing industries and exports [10]. - China's steel exports reached a record high in 2025. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 10771 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, and the billet export volume in the first ten months increased by 157% [11]. - Overseas, the total iron ore demand increased in 2025 but was highly differentiated. India was the main growth driver, while demand in Japan, South Korea, and some European countries decreased [14]. 3.2.2. Overseas Ore Shipments Maintained an Upward Trend - In 2025, China's iron ore imports increased slightly. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 1.139 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import rhythm accelerated in the second half of the year [19]. - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea was successfully launched in 2025, and the first shipment was made in December. The project has an annual capacity of 1.2 billion tons and is expected to significantly increase production in 2026 [19]. - Global iron ore shipments were generally at a high level. From January to the 49th week, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.1% year - on - year. Mainstream mines' shipments to China and arrivals increased significantly in the second half of the year [20]. 3.2.3. Iron Ore Port Inventories - Port inventories were generally at a high level in 2025, first decreasing and then increasing. At the beginning of the year, inventories were about 150 million tons. They decreased in the first half due to low overseas shipments and high domestic consumption, and then increased in the second half due to strong supply and weakening demand [31]. 3.2.4. Steel Mill Inventories - Steel mills adopted a cautious strategy of "actively reducing inventories and maintaining low levels" in 2025. They were cautious in raw material procurement, especially in the second half of the year when profits were compressed [43]. - Steel mills tended to replenish inventories before long holidays to ensure production continuity. After the holidays, inventory reduction often led to weakening iron ore prices [43]. 3.2.5. Domestic Mine Production - Domestic mine production contracted in 2025. From January to October, the cumulative iron ore output was 851.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. Production in Hebei and Liaoning decreased significantly [45]. - Some new projects in 2025 are expected to contribute about 6.565 million tons of new iron concentrate output, but they are still far from the goals of the "Cornerstone Plan" [45]. 3.2.6. Shipping Freight - Iron ore shipping freight increased significantly in 2025, showing a pattern of being weak at first and then strong with wide fluctuations. By December 11, the freight from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao increased by 64% compared to the beginning of the year, and that from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao increased by 33% [47]. 3.3. Market Outlook - In 2026, global iron ore demand growth is expected to be moderate. China's demand is weak, while overseas demand has some resilience [50]. - Global iron ore production in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.3%, with increments mainly from the Simandou project and production expansion of major mines in Australia and Brazil [50]. - The global iron ore market is expected to maintain a loose supply - demand pattern in 2026. With weak demand and continuous supply growth, the iron ore price is under pressure, and its center may continue to decline, with a reference range of 600 - 880 yuan/ton [51].