综合晨报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the progress of the peace talks led by the US has increased concerns about the release of Russian oil supply, causing oil prices to drop to their lowest level this year [1] - Precious metals continued to be strong overnight. The loose trading continued after the Fed meeting, and gold is approaching its historical high. If it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue [2] - The prices of various metals and commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost factors, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy Commodities - Crude Oil: EU sanctions on Russia and US sanctions on Venezuela have affected the global oil market. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the potential release of Russian oil supply after the peace talks has put pressure on oil prices [1] - Natural Gas: No relevant content provided. - Coal: No relevant content provided. - Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): No relevant content provided. - Carbon Emission Rights: No relevant content provided. Metals - Precious Metals: Gold is approaching its historical high, and platinum and palladium are at high levels. The relatively low - valued platinum and palladium are favored by long - position funds. The long - term allocation rhythm is clear [2] - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose and then gave back some gains. The high position volume in the Shanghai copper market suggests that long - position investors should temporarily reduce their positions and wait and see [3] - Aluminum: The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Long - position investors can hold their positions based on certain support levels and leave the market if they break [4] - Zinc: The LME's position limit plan is expected to end the soft squeeze on the outer market. The internal and external price difference is likely to converge, and it is a good time for cross - market reverse arbitrage. Shanghai zinc is in a short - term rebound [7] Chemicals - Synthetic Materials - Polyethylene (PE): The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, with low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [25] - Polypropylene (PP): The production of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - Basic Chemicals - Methanol: The methanol market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and it is expected to be weak [22] - Urea: The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [21] Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The weather in South America has improved, and the US soybean data has not been adjusted. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased. The strategy is to wait for the weather changes in South America and go long on the main contract at low prices [33] - Palm Oil: The palm oil market is facing high - inventory pressure and is expected to be neutral or weak in the short term [34] - Livestock and Poultry Products - Pigs: The supply of pigs is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. The medium - to - long - term price may have a second bottom [38] - Eggs: The egg futures price of the 01 contract is leading the market, but the price is still in the previous range. The far - month contract needs to pay attention to chick replenishment and old - hen culling [39] - Cash Crops - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton price has risen significantly. There are rumors that the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease next year. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [40] - Sugar: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, but the production forecast for the 25/26 season is good [41] Others - Shipping: The SCFIS European route index has been released, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is expected to rise, but there are risks such as additional supply pressure. The far - month 04 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [19] - Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market and stock index futures fell yesterday. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern in the short term, depending on the implementation of domestic economic policies [45] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market is in a warm - up and volatile state. In the short term, it is difficult to break through the volatile adjustment pattern, and attention should be paid to the previous interest rate high points [46]