银河期货每日早盘观察-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each market segment. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are expected to continue oscillating, and treasury bond futures may further adjust due to lack of incremental benefits. In the agricultural products market, soybeans face supply pressure but may have a phased rebound, while sugar shows different trends in the international and domestic markets. Each industry is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic situations [20][24][28]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: Due to the influence of factors such as the decline of US stocks on Friday night and the uncertainty of the AI bubble in the US stock market, the market is expected to continue oscillating. Trading strategies include high - selling and low - buying in a single - side approach, waiting for the expansion of basis for arbitrage, and using the double - buying strategy for options [20][23][24]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Although the economic data in November was not as expected, the bond market was more influenced by expectations. The end - of - year institutional behavior amplified price fluctuations. It is recommended to stop loss on existing long positions in the TL contract and try short - selling medium - and short - term contracts. Arbitrage requires waiting and seeing [24][25][26]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, but there may be a phased rebound. Domestic soybean meal has price support. It is recommended to wait and see in a single - side approach, reduce the MRM spread for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [28][30]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is bottom - oscillating, while the domestic sugar price is weakening. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure is gradually alleviating, and the domestic sugar market is affected by factors such as new - season production and import policies. The trading strategy includes short - term short - selling in a single - side approach, long - January and short - May for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [31][34][35]. - Oilseeds and Oils: The overall oil market is oscillating weakly. The Malaysian palm oil may accumulate inventory, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply and demand situations. It is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying for a single - side approach and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35][37][38]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The US corn price is oscillating weakly, and the domestic corn price is affected by factors such as increased supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 03 contract, close short positions, and establish long positions for the 07 contract in a single - side approach, close the 3 - 7 corn reverse spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [38][41][42]. - Live Hogs: The overall supply pressure of live hogs still exists, and the pig price is expected to face pressure. It is recommended to use a short - selling strategy in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [42][43][44]. - Peanuts: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract has room for decline. It is recommended to short the 03 contract lightly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [45][47]. - Eggs: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to wait and see for the 1 - month contract and consider establishing long positions for the far - month contracts in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [47][50][51]. - Apples: The apple demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The 5 - month contract is expected to have limited room for a sharp decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the previous low point in a single - side approach, long - January and short - October for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][54][55]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The new - cotton sales are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to establish long positions on dips in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [55][58]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel export management scope is expanded, and the steel price is oscillating. The steel production and demand are affected by seasonal factors, and the cost has certain support. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating strategy in a single - side approach, short the hot - rolled coal ratio and the hot - rolled rebar spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [59][60][61]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke are oscillating at the bottom. The Mongolian coal supply may increase, but the downstream winter - storage demand and coal mine production reduction at the end of the year may affect the supply - demand relationship. It is recommended to wait and see in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [62][63][64]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [64][65][67]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloys are affected by cost support and demand suppression. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to oscillate at the bottom in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [67][68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: The macro - uncertainty increases, and the price fluctuations of gold and silver are amplified. It is recommended to hold long positions for the Shanghai gold and silver contracts in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [70][71][72]. - Platinum and Palladium: After the low - valuation rebound, the price fluctuations of platinum and palladium intensify. The platinum has supply - demand support, and the palladium is more affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to take a long - buying strategy on dips in a single - side approach, long - platinum and short - palladium for arbitrage [74][75][76]. - Copper: After a full correction, it is recommended to buy. The copper market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and AI - related news. It is recommended to re - establish long positions after a full correction in a single - side approach [78][79]. - Alumina: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the alumina price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][84][85]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: With the release of macro - data this week, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. The aluminum market is affected by macro - expectations and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to oscillate after a correction in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [86][87][88]. - Cast Aluminum Alloys: Due to the uncertainty of macro - expectations this week, it is recommended to pay attention to the cross - variety spread. It is recommended to oscillate with the aluminum price in a single - side approach, do the AD - AL spread convergence during the aluminum price correction for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [88][89][90]. - Zinc: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and pay attention to the LME zinc price. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and overseas news. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously in a single - side approach, buy SHFE zinc and sell LME zinc for arbitrage, and buy deep out - of - the - money put options [91][92][93]. - Lead: It is recommended to pay attention to the support effectiveness of the domestic secondary lead smelting cost. The lead market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and overseas strikes. It is recommended to close some short - term short positions and hold some positions in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [94][96][97]. - Nickel: As a short - position variety, it continues to decline. The nickel market has a supply surplus, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [99][100][101]. - Stainless Steel: It follows the decline of the nickel price. The stainless - steel market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and export policies. It is recommended to decline in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage [101][102][103]. - Industrial Silicon: It may decline in the future. The industrial silicon market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and the "anti - involution" of polysilicon. It is recommended to short on rallies [104][105]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to buy on dips. The polysilicon market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and industry self - discipline. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips in a single - side approach, long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell put options [105][109]. - Lithium Carbonate: The mine restart is postponed again, and the lithium price is rising strongly. The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and industry policies. It is recommended to operate cautiously at a high level in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 2605 contract [109][110][111]. - Tin: The AI bubble re - ignites, and the Indonesian export recovers, causing the tin price to decline under pressure. The tin market is affected by factors such as AI - related news and Indonesian exports. It is recommended to oscillate weakly at a high level in a single - side approach, wait and see for options [111][112][113]. Shipping - Container Shipping: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the first - week opening price of MSK. The container shipping market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and price expectations. It is recommended to close some long positions and hold some for the EC2602 contract in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage [116][117]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: The geopolitical expectation cools down, and the oil price continues to find the bottom. The crude oil market is affected by factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in a single - side approach, consider the neutral gasoline and weak diesel in China for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [118][119][120]. - Asphalt: The winter - storage support is limited, and the cost disturbance increases. The asphalt market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and raw material prices. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2602 contract [122][123][124]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is affected by device changes. The fuel oil market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and geopolitical events. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, short - crack the low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [125][126][127]. - Natural Gas: The LNG price is in a downward trend, and the HH price continues to correct. The natural gas market is affected by factors such as weather and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to buy the HH2602 contract in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell TTF call options [127][128][132]. - LPG: The supply increases slightly, and the demand elasticity is insufficient. The LPG market is affected by factors such as international prices and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [130][131][133]. - PX & PTA: The PX operation rate remains high, and the PTA has a stock - accumulation expectation. The PX & PTA market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and oil prices. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, short - PX and long - PTA for the 3 - 5 & 1 - 5 contracts for arbitrage, and use the double - selling option strategy [133][134][135]. - BZ & EB: The pure benzene supply - demand is loose, and the styrene basis weakens. The BZ & EB market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and oil prices. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, short - pure benzene and long - styrene for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [137][138][139]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory has a de - stocking pressure. The ethylene glycol market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and downstream production. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [141][142][143]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and downstream consumption. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146]. - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand is relatively loose. The bottle - chip market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and new - device production. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [147][148][149]. - Propylene: The operation rate increases, and the inventory is at a high level. The propylene market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and raw material prices. It is recommended to short on rallies in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [150][151][152]. - Plastic PP: The apparent demand for PE and PP increases. The plastic PP market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and macro - economic data. It is recommended to hold long positions for the L 2605 contract in a single - side approach and wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152][154][155]. - Caustic Soda: It shows an oscillating trend. The caustic soda market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and production costs. It is recommended to oscillate in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [155][156][157]. - PVC: It oscillates at the bottom. The PVC market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and export policies. It is recommended to wait and see in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [158][159][160]. - Soda Ash: The price oscillates after the contract change. The soda ash market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and new - capacity production. It is recommended to keep the price stable this week in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [160][161][162]. - Glass: The glass price oscillates. The glass market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and real - estate data. It is recommended to oscillate in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [163][164][165]. - Methanol: It oscillates at the bottom. The methanol market is affected by factors such as international device operation rates and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to oscillate in a single - side approach [166][169]. - Urea: The trading is stable, and the futures oscillate weakly. The urea market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and international prices. It is recommended to oscillate in a single - side approach [170][173][174]. - Pulp: There is a weak reality and a strong expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the warehouse - receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp market is affected