Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][14] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][19] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][23] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1][27] - PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][31] - Ethylene glycol: Short on rebounds [3][34] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3][37] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][42] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7][54] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7][58] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation during the off - season, leading to downward pressure on oil prices [1][11] - The price of LPG is dragged down by the cost of crude oil, and the supply - demand situation shows that the refinery's production is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [1][17] - For L, the basis is weakening, the supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural film market is declining, with inventory removal pressure [1][22] - PP needs to pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [1][26] - PVC has an oversupply contradiction before concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream, but the cost of raw materials is falling [1][30] - PTA has a relatively tight short - term supply - demand balance, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in January, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [3][32] - Ethylene glycol has a short - term supply improvement, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3][35] - Methanol's port inventory is decreasing, but the fundamental situation remains weak, with supply pressure and weakening demand [3][39] - Urea has a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation, with high supply and limited demand sustainability, and attention should be paid to exports [3][43] - The price of natural gas has reached a high level, with increasing upward pressure, and the supply and demand situation is affected by geopolitics and seasonal factors [6] - Asphalt's price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in South America [7][52] - Glass has a situation of weak supply reduction and weak demand, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [7][57] - Soda ash has a loose supply pattern, with high inventory and insufficient demand support [7][61] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.34%, Brent down 0.92%, and SC down 0.30% [10] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing, and the off - season supply is in excess, with global and US crude oil inventories increasing [11] - Fundamentals: Russia's oil production increased slightly in November, and the IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories have different trends [12] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - and long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the price is in a low - price range. Short - term trends are weak, and partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended [13] LPG - Market Review: On December 15, the PG main contract closed at 4152 yuan/ton, up 0.58% month - on - month [16] - Basic Logic: The price is linked to crude oil, with cost - side negatives. Supply is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [17] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - and long - term, the price has room for compression. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - Market Review: The prices of L contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [20] - Basic Logic: The basis is weakening, supply is sufficient, and there is inventory removal pressure [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Pay attention to the range of [6500 - 6650] [22] PP - Market Review: The prices of PP contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [24] - Basic Logic: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [26] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or shorting MTO05. Pay attention to the range of [6200 - 6350] [26] PVC - Market Review: The prices of PVC contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [28] - Basic Logic: The cost of raw materials is falling, but the oversupply contradiction persists before concentrated maintenance [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4400] [30] PTA - Market Review: The prices of PTA contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [31] - Basic Logic: The supply - side pressure is relieved due to high - intensity maintenance, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [32] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on TA05 at low levels. Pay attention to the range of [4650 - 4710] [33] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: The prices of ethylene glycol contracts had different trends, with changes in trading volume and open interest [34] - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas device loads are decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [35] - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3580 - 3650] [36] Methanol - Market Review: No specific market review content provided - Basic Logic: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply pressure remains, and the demand is slightly weakening [39] - Strategy Recommendation: The main contract is changing hands, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to MA05 [41] Urea - Market Review: The prices of urea contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [42] - Basic Logic: The supply is relatively sufficient, the demand is short - term good but not sustainable, and the inventory is still at a high level [43] - Strategy Recommendation: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on UR05. Pay attention to the range of [1635 - 1655] [45] Natural Gas - Market Review: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.113 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.79% month - on - month [48] - Basic Logic: The demand is in the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the supply is relatively sufficient [49] - Strategy Recommendation: The demand has support, but the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of [3.860 - 4.239] [49] Asphalt - Market Review: On December 15, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 0.37% month - on - month [51] - Basic Logic: The price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation [52] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially take profit on short positions due to the uncertainty in South America. Pay attention to the range of [2850 - 2950] [53] Glass - Market Review: The prices of glass contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [55] - Basic Logic: The supply is difficult to shrink significantly, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [57] - Strategy Recommendation: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [930 - 980] [57] Soda Ash - Market Review: The prices of soda ash contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [59] - Basic Logic: The supply is loose, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory is still at a high level [61] - Strategy Recommendation: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [1080 - 1130] [61]
中辉能化观点-20251216
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-12-16 02:31