中辉有色观点-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [2] - Silver: Long - term holding [2] - Copper: Long - term holding [2] - Zinc: Under pressure [2] - Lead: Under pressure [2] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [2] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [2] - Nickel: Weak [2] - Industrial silicon: Low - level oscillation [2] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various有色金属 futures. For precious metals like gold and silver, long - term investment is recommended due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. For base metals, the market conditions vary. For example, copper is favored in the long - term due to supply constraints and green demand, while zinc and lead face downward pressure. For new energy metals like lithium carbonate, the market is affected by factors such as production, demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - 行情回顾: Precious metals have attracted attention, and funds have shifted to platinum and palladium. The market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [3]. - 基本逻辑: Morgan Stanley may conduct technical selling of gold and silver. The Fed's stance is inconsistent, and geopolitical situations are complex [3]. - 策略推荐: Long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing. For silver, avoid chasing highs or touching lows in the short - term and hold long - term positions. Short - term, pay attention to the support level of domestic gold at 955. For silver, be wary of high volatility risks [4]. Copper - 行情回顾: Shanghai copper is consolidating at a high level [6]. - 产业逻辑: The global copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and it is the consumption off - season. The COMEX copper is attracting global copper inventories, and the LME copper注销仓单占比 remains at a high level of 40% [6]. - 策略推荐: With the upcoming release of US non - farm payroll data and the ongoing TC long - term contract negotiation for copper concentrate in 2026 in China, it is recommended to set a trailing stop - profit when the price rises. In the long - term, copper is still favored due to supply shortages and green demand. Short - term, the range for Shanghai copper is [90000, 94500] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [11000, 12000] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - 行情回顾: Shanghai zinc is falling under pressure [9]. - 产业逻辑: The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate is declining. The supply may contract in the future, and it is the consumption off - season. Overseas LME zinc inventories are increasing, and domestic zinc ingot social inventories are slightly decreasing [9]. - 策略推荐: In the short - term, zinc is falling from a high level. Enterprises are recommended to actively conduct sell - hedging at high prices. In the long - term, zinc supply will increase while demand will decrease, so it is a short - position in the sector. The range for Shanghai zinc is [23000, 23500], and for London zinc is [3100, 3200] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - 行情回顾: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina is stabilizing at a low level [12]. - 产业逻辑: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of some aluminum enterprises in southwest China may increase. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is rising, and the demand is showing structural differentiation. For alumina, the overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the inventory is high. The market surplus pattern continues [13]. - 策略推荐: It is recommended to take profit and then wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventories. The operating range for the main contract is [21000 - 22200] [14]. Nickel - 行情回顾: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is facing pressure in the rebound [16]. - 产业逻辑: Indonesia plans to cut nickel production. Nickel inventories are increasing. The stainless steel market has entered the off - season, and the inventory is slightly rising [17]. - 策略推荐: It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term. Pay attention to the change in stainless steel inventories. The operating range for the main nickel contract is [113800 - 117000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - 行情回顾: The main contract LC2605 opened lower and then rose, and closed above 100,000 [20]. - 产业逻辑: Domestic production remains high. Overseas supply pressure has eased. The sales of new energy vehicles at the beginning of December were below expectations, but the energy storage sector is strong. The demand from downstream material factories still supports lithium carbonate [21]. - 策略推荐: The capital game is intense. For long positions, pay attention to taking profit in the range of [98000 - 105000] [22].